尿素周报：上下游博弈，关注印标影响-20251117

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Last week, the urea futures price center moved down, and the spot price fluctuated weakly with a divergence between large and small granules. The supply side remained loose, and the coal raw material price continued to rise but with a narrowing increase. The start - up load of compound fertilizer factories decreased due to environmental inspections, and is expected to improve after the inspections end. After the release of new export quotas, the market purchasing sentiment increased, and inventory decreased. The subsequent Indian tender situation will affect the domestic urea market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Directory Spot Market Dynamics - Last week, the urea spot price fluctuated weakly with a divergence between large and small granules. Since the weekend, the quotation declined, and the daily output continued to increase after the commissioning of new production capacity, suppressing the spot price [3]. Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures price was affected by export news. As of November 10, the main January contract closed at 1,660 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton from November 3. The weekly trading volume was 16.1774 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.3429 million tons; the open interest was 7.3106 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.1785 million tons. The basis weakened, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 75 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 3 yuan/ton. As of November 17, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,183, a week - on - week increase of 3,130 [6][8]. Urea Supply Side - From November 6 - 12, the weekly urea output was 1.3769 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,400 tons or 1.65%, with an average daily output of 196,700 tons. The next cycle is expected to see an overall increase in production. The price of动力煤continued to rise but with a narrowing increase, and the price of liquefied natural gas decreased. The price center of synthetic ammonia moved down, and the price of methanol was stable [11][13][14]. Urea Demand Side - As of November 17, the price of 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was flat week - on - week. The start - up load of compound fertilizer factories decreased due to environmental inspections in North China and is expected to improve after the inspections end. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine increased, while the demand from panel enterprises shrank [16]. Inventory - As of November 14, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.4836 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 94,500 tons or 5.99%. The port sample inventory was 82,000 tons, an increase of 3,000 tons from last week. Inventory is expected to continue to decline slightly next week [19]. International Market - Affected by the European Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism, the European market stocked up in advance, and the demand in the Middle East, Australia, and Southeast Asia increased with a slight price increase. The international market is waiting for the Indian tender. As of November 14, the FOB prices of small and large - granule urea in different regions showed different changes [21].