美元流动性边际收紧商品短期或承压运行：大宗商品周度报告2025年11月17日-20251117

Report Information - Report Title: Commodity Weekly Report - Report Date: November 17, 2025 - Report Author: Hu Jingyi from Guotou Futures Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The commodity market fluctuated upward last week, with an overall increase of 0.87%. Precious metals led the gains at 5.07%, while black and energy - chemical sectors declined by 0.4% and 0.65% respectively [2][6]. - With the marginal tightening of US dollar liquidity, the commodity market may face short - term pressure. The end of the US government shutdown is beneficial to market risk appetite, but Fed officials' hawkish statements have cooled the expectation of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in December [2]. Summary by Category Market Performance - Overall Market: The commodity market rose 0.87% last week. Precious metals led the gains at 5.07%, followed by non - ferrous metals and agricultural products at 0.77% and 0.67% respectively. Black and energy - chemical sectors fell by 0.4% and 0.65% [2][6]. - Top Gainers and Losers: Silver, apples, and rapeseed oil were the top gainers, with increases of 7.55%, 5.86%, and 4.09% respectively. Coking coal, eggs, and glass were the top losers, dropping 6.14%, 5.78%, and 5.41% [6]. - Volatility: The 20 - day average volatility of the commodity market continued to decline, with significant decreases in precious metals, chemicals, and soft commodities [2][6]. - Funds: The overall market scale increased, mainly driven by precious metals. Only the black sector had net capital outflows [2][6]. Outlook for Each Sector - Precious Metals: The market initially expected economic data during the US government shutdown to confirm economic weakness and increase the probability of a rate cut, but Fed officials' hawkish remarks suppressed rate - cut expectations. The sector may oscillate at high levels [2]. - Non - Ferrous Metals: Domestic fixed - asset investment and social financing were below expectations, and the expectation of a December rate cut by the Fed cooled. With a slight inventory build - up and a tight long - term supply - demand outlook, the sector may face short - term pressure [2]. - Black Sector: The apparent demand for rebar slightly declined, production decreased, and inventory continued to fall. Iron ore production rebounded last week but still has room to cut. Steel mills' profit margins are average, and they are eager to lower raw material prices. The sector may oscillate in the short term [3]. - Energy Sector: OPEC's November report raised non - OPEC+ supply growth and maintained demand growth, shifting the balance from a shortage to equilibrium. The IEA also increased its surplus forecast, and EIA crude inventories unexpectedly rose by 641.3 million barrels. Although geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine may support oil prices, the market may face short - term pressure [3]. - Chemical Sector: For polyester products, the strong overseas gasoline crack spread and tight US aromatic supply boosted the Asian aromatic market, but chemical demand is expected to weaken. For construction products, the cancellation of India's BIS certification for PVC had limited impact. The sector may oscillate in the short term [3]. - Agricultural Products: The USDA's November report showed a decrease in the US new - crop soybean's yield, production, exports, and ending stocks. However, since the market had already priced in the positive news, soybean prices fell after the report. Soybean meal may follow the decline, and the edible oil and oilseed sector may oscillate weakly in the short term [4]. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs: Most gold ETFs had positive weekly returns, with an average increase of around 3.26% - 3.45%. The total scale of gold ETFs was 2,231.72 billion yuan, with a 2.67% increase [34]. - Other Commodity ETFs: The energy - chemical ETF had a - 0.58% return, the soybean meal ETF had a 0.99% return, the non - ferrous metal ETF had a 1.26% return, and the silver futures (LOF) had an 8.94% return [34]. - Overall Commodity ETFs: The total scale of commodity ETFs was 2,343.35 billion yuan, with a 2.52% increase. Trading volume also increased significantly by 93.95% [34].