大类资产运行周报(20251110-20251114):美国政府停摆结束关键数据有望公布-20251117
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-11-17 13:07
  1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From November 10th to November 14th, the US federal government shutdown ended, and some key data is expected to be released. Globally, stocks and commodities rose while the bond market declined, with commodities > stocks > bonds in USD terms. In China, the stock market declined while the bond and commodity markets were relatively strong, with commodities > bonds > stocks. After the end of the US government shutdown, market liquidity is expected to gradually return to normal, and attention should be paid to the overall changes in market liquidity [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Global Major Asset Performance Global Stock Market - In the week from November 10th to November 14th, multiple Fed officials took a hawkish stance, reducing the expectation of a December USD interest rate cut. Global major stock markets showed mixed performance. European stocks led the gains, while US stocks performed poorly. Emerging markets underperformed developed markets, and the VIX index rose for the week [8]. - The MSCI US index dropped 0.02% for the week, the S&P 500 rose 0.08%, the MSCI Europe index rose 2.13%, and the MSCI Asia-Pacific region index rose 0.29% [11][12][13]. Global Bond Market - In the week from November 10th to November 14th, multiple Fed officials expressed caution about a December USD interest rate cut. Medium and long-term US bond yields increased. The 10-year US bond yield rose 3BP to 4.14% for the week, and the bond market declined. Globally, high-yield bonds > credit bonds > government bonds [15]. Global Foreign Exchange Market - In the week from November 10th to November 14th, the uncertainty of a December USD interest rate cut increased, and the US dollar index declined for the week. Most major non-US currencies rose against the US dollar, and the RMB exchange rate closed higher. The US dollar index dropped 0.26% for the week [16]. Global Commodity Market - The international oil price fluctuated and closed higher for the week. Precious metal prices retreated from their highs but still closed higher for the week. Most major agricultural product prices rose, while most non-ferrous metal prices declined [18]. Domestic Major Asset Performance Domestic Stock Market - The A-share market's major broad-based indices generally declined. The trading volume of the two markets increased compared to the previous week. In terms of style, the growth style underperformed. Among sectors, consumer services and textile and apparel led the gains, while communication and electronics performed poorly. The Shanghai Composite Index dropped 0.18% for the week [21]. Domestic Bond Market - In the week from November 10th to November 14th, the central bank's open market operations had a net injection of 62.62 billion yuan. The liquidity tightened marginally. The bond market fluctuated and trended stronger. Overall, government bonds > corporate bonds > credit bonds [24]. Domestic Commodity Market - The domestic commodity market closed higher for the week. Among major commodity sectors, precious metals led the gains, while the energy sector performed poorly [25]. Outlook for Major Asset Prices - After the end of the US government shutdown, market liquidity is expected to gradually return to normal. Attention should be paid to the overall changes in market liquidity [3][29].