原油周报：冠通期货研究报告-20251117

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market is in a supply surplus situation, and it is expected that the crude oil price will fluctuate weakly [3] - The supply surplus pattern of crude oil has become more of a consensus, with OPEC adjusting the global oil situation in Q3 2025 from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the IEA predicting that oil demand growth will slow down in Q4 while supply will further increase [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 2nd, eight OPEC+ countries decided to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day in December, the same as the production increase plans in October and November. Production increase will be suspended in Q1 next year, and the next OPEC+ eight - country meeting will be held on November 30th. This will intensify the crude oil supply pressure in Q4 but unexpectedly relieve the supply pressure in Q1 next year [3] - Saudi Aramco comprehensively lowered the official selling prices of crude oil sold to Asia in December, with the price of its flagship product, Arab Light crude oil, being cut by $1.20 per barrel [3] - The peak season for crude oil demand has ended. EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the decline in refined oil inventories was less than expected, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase. US crude oil production continued to reach a new historical high [3] - The US has changed its attitude towards Russia. The US Treasury Department has sanctioned Russia's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil, and their subsidiaries, which is expected to limit Russia's crude oil exports. However, Trump has recently stated that he hopes to continue the meeting with Putin in Budapest. India may reach a new tariff agreement with the US and agree to gradually reduce its imports of Russian oil. Ukraine's attacks on Russian refineries have led to a continuous rise in European gasoline and diesel prices. Attention should be paid to Russia's crude oil export situation [3] - The military stand - off between the US and Venezuela has escalated, with the Ford Strike Group arriving in the Caribbean Sea [3] - The end of the consumption peak season, the month - on - month decline of the US ISM manufacturing index in October, and its continuous contraction for eight months have raised market concerns about crude oil demand. OPEC+ is accelerating production increase, and exports from the Middle East are increasing, so the crude oil market remains in a supply surplus pattern [3] Crude Oil Supply - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that its crude oil production in September was adjusted down by 13,000 barrels per day to 2,842,700 barrels per day. Its production in October 2025 increased by 33,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 2,846,000 barrels per day, mainly driven by the production increases of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait [14] - OPEC+ crude oil production in October decreased by 73,000 barrels per day month - on - month compared to September to 43.02 million barrels per day [14] - US crude oil production in the week of November 7th increased by 211,000 barrels per day to 1,386,200 barrels per day, continuing to reach a new historical high. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 798,000 barrels month - on - month to 410.4 million barrels, the highest since the week of September 30, 2022, and has increased for 16 consecutive weeks [14] Central Bank Interest Rate Cuts - Logan: It is difficult to support an interest rate cut in December, and it is not appropriate to provide more preventive protection to the labor market through interest rate cuts [18] - Milan: The data supports an interest rate cut, and the Fed should be more dovish [18] - Schmid: Further interest rate cuts may have a lasting impact on inflation; concerns about inflation go far beyond the tariff issue [18] - Former Fed Governor Kugler faced an ethics investigation before resigning [18] Performance of European and American Refined Oil - The gasoline crack spreads in the US and Europe increased by $1 per barrel and $4.5 per barrel respectively, while the diesel crack spreads in the US and Europe decreased by $1 per barrel and $4.5 per barrel respectively [23] US Gasoline and Diesel Demand - According to the latest data from the US Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of US crude oil products increased to 20.605 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.38% compared to the same period last year, and the decline compared to the same period last year has narrowed [29] - The weekly demand for gasoline increased by 1.74% to 9.028 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 8.82 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.56% compared to the same period last year [29] - The weekly demand for diesel increased by 8.30% to 4.018 million barrels per day, the four - week average demand was 3.789 million barrels per day, a decrease of 2.33% compared to the same period last year. The rebound of gasoline and diesel demand drove the weekly supply of US crude oil products to increase by 2.03% month - on - month [29] US Crude Oil Inventory - On the early morning of November 14th, US EIA data showed that as of the week ending November 7th, US crude oil inventories increased by 6.413 million barrels, exceeding the expected increase of 1.96 million barrels and 4.01% lower than the five - year average [37] - Gasoline inventories decreased by 945,000 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 1.888 million barrels; refined oil inventories decreased by 637,000 barrels, less than the expected decrease of 2.028 million barrels. Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 346,000 barrels [37] - EIA data shows that the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, the decline in refined oil inventories was less than expected, and the overall oil product inventories continued to increase [37] Geopolitical Risks - On the 14th local time, Israeli fighter jets carried out two air strikes on Rafah in southern Gaza [43] - After a two - day suspension, Russia's Novorossiysk port resumed oil loading operations on Sunday [43] - Iranian Foreign Minister: Currently, Iran has no ongoing uranium enrichment activities and no undeclared uranium enrichment facilities [43]