国投期货能源日报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ☆☆☆, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [4][5] - Fuel oil: ☆☆☆, indicating a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [4][5] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: ☆☆☆, suggesting a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [4][5] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, meaning a clearer bearish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [4][5] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆, showing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [4][5] Core Viewpoints - The crude oil market faces increasing supply - demand pressure in the fourth quarter and the first quarter of next year, with a medium - term downward risk for oil prices [2] - Fuel oil prices mainly follow crude oil trends. High - sulfur fuel oil is short - term supported by geopolitical factors, while the medium - term supply pattern tends to be loose. Low - sulfur fuel oil has improved fundamentals recently but faces medium - term supply pressure [2] - The cost support for asphalt continues to weaken, demand is seasonally weakening, and the medium - and long - term fundamentals are bearish [2] - The supply - demand of liquefied petroleum gas is marginally tightening, so it can be regarded as oscillating strongly [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Last week, international oil prices fluctuated, with the Brent 01 contract rising 0.93%. Geopolitical risks around Russia and Venezuela supported oil prices, but the recovery of the attacked Russian Black Sea port led to a price drop. Pay attention to the impact of Russian oil sanctions on exports and the release of Venezuelan risks [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - High - sulfur fuel oil is short - term supported by geopolitical factors as Russian exports decline marginally due to sanctions and facility attacks. However, the medium - term supply will be loose as the Middle East increases production and the power generation peak season ends [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil has a strong recent performance due to supply fluctuations, support from refinery operation instability, and demand during the peak shipping fuel season. But the planned maintenance of the Dangote refinery's RFCC device may increase the supply [2] Asphalt - In November, the discount of diluted asphalt dropped to -$11 per barrel, weakening cost support. Weekly shipments have decreased since November, and inventory de - stocking has slowed. The demand is expected to weaken seasonally, with a bearish impact on the market [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The increase in propane discount supports the import cost. The improvement in the profitability of butane dehydrogenation devices boosts downstream chemical enterprise开工, and the cooling weather drives up combustion demand. The tightening supply - demand situation makes LPG oscillate strongly [3]