国投期货化工日报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Propylene: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias, but with limited operability on the trading floor) [1] - Polypropylene: ★☆☆ [1] - Plastic: ★☆★ [1] - Styrene: ★☆☆ [1] - PTA: ★★☆ [1] - Ethylene Glycol: ★☆☆ [1] - Short Fiber: ★★★ [1] - Bottle Chip: ☆☆☆ [1] - Methanol: ★★★ [1] - Urea: ☆☆☆ [1] - PVC: ★★☆ [1] - Caustic Soda: ★☆☆ [1] - Soda Ash: ★★☆ [1] - Glass: ★★☆ [1] Core Viewpoints - The olefins and polyolefins market shows mixed trends, with propylene having price support and plastics and polypropylene facing supply - demand imbalances but potential for technical rebounds [2] - The pure benzene - styrene market has different outlooks, with caution on pure benzene rebounds and a relatively stable situation for styrene [3] - The polyester market is affected by multiple factors, with PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, and bottle chip having their own supply - demand and price trends [5] - The coal - chemical market has a weak methanol market and a potentially volatile urea market [6] - The chlor - alkali market shows PVC in a narrow - range oscillation and caustic soda in a weak state [7] - The soda ash - glass market has an oversupply situation in the long - term for soda ash and a weak reality for glass [8] Summary by Directory Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures' main contracts oscillated and tested the 5 - day moving average. Propylene prices are supported by low enterprise inventories and good downstream demand [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures' main contracts had a narrow - range consolidation. Supply pressure persists, and demand is expected to decline seasonally, but prices may rebound technically [2] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Overseas gasoline trends are strong, but the rebound of domestic pure benzene is limited. A strategy of shorting on rallies and reverse spreads on monthly differentials is recommended [3] - Styrene futures' main contracts rose slightly. Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory reduction [3] Polyester - PX supports PTA prices, but PTA load is decreasing due to device maintenance. Caution is needed when being bullish on PX, and PTA processing margins fluctuate with PX [5] - Ethylene glycol production increased slightly, and port inventories rose. A bearish view is maintained, and reverse spreads on monthly differentials are recommended [5] - Short fiber has no new investment pressure, but demand is expected to weaken. Bottle chip demand fades with the cooling weather [5] Coal - Chemical - Methanol futures declined significantly. Overseas device start - up increased, and port inventories remained high. Demand is likely to be weak, and the market will continue to be weak [6] - Urea futures were strong, but there is a possibility of a downward trend as the market sentiment returns to rationality. Attention should be paid to Indian urea tenders [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC oscillated. The cancellation of India's BIS certification has little impact. Supply is high and demand is weak, so PVC may oscillate in a narrow range [7] - Caustic soda declined. Supply is high, and downstream demand is insufficient. Its weak operation should be monitored for profit changes [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash oscillated. Costs increased, and production decreased due to some plant maintenance. It is in an oversupply situation in the long - term [8] - Glass oscillated. Intermediate inventories are high, and the market is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for now [8]