USDA棉花月度报告解读：棉花：美棉产量大幅上调，新年度供给仍偏宽松-20251117

Report Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The November 2025/26 USDA report shows a significant increase in global cotton production, while consumption remains relatively stable, resulting in a looser supply situation. The report is overall bearish, and in the medium to short term, US cotton may continue to trade in a low - range oscillation [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs 2025/26 Annual Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - Production: Global cotton production in 2025/26 was significantly increased by 523,000 tons compared to September. China's production was raised by 218,000 tons to 7.294 million tons; Brazil's by 108,000 tons; and US cotton production was sharply increased by 194,000 tons to 3.073 million tons due to favorable weather in Texas and an increase in yield per unit [1]. - Consumption: Global consumption was slightly increased by 11,000 tons, with no major adjustments to the data of major consuming countries. Despite the easing of Sino - US relations, overall cotton consumption remains stable [1]. - Imports and Exports: Global imports were increased by 65,000 tons, with Vietnam's imports up by 21,000 tons and China's by 44,000 tons. Global exports were also increased by 65,000 tons, with Brazil's exports up by 44,000 tons and the US's by 43,000 tons [1]. - Ending Stocks: Global ending stocks in 2025/26 were significantly increased by 607,000 tons compared to September. China's ending stocks were up by 261,000 tons, the US's by 152,000 tons, and Brazil's by 65,000 tons [2]. Global Cotton Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - Production: From 2021/22 to 2025/26 - 11, the total global cotton production increased from 24.894 million tons to 26.145 million tons, with a monthly increase of 523,000 tons and an annual increase of 174,000 tons in 2025/26 [4]. - Consumption: The total global cotton consumption increased from 25.193 million tons in 2021/22 to 25.883 million tons in 2025/26 - 11, with a monthly increase of 11,000 tons and an annual decrease of 35,000 tons in 2025/26 [4]. - Imports: The total global cotton imports increased from 9.344 million tons in 2021/22 to 9.581 million tons in 2025/26 - 11, with a monthly increase of 65,000 tons and an annual increase of 212,000 tons in 2025/26 [4]. - Exports: The total global cotton exports increased from 9.29 million tons in 2021/22 to 9.58 million tons in 2025/26 - 11, with a monthly increase of 65,000 tons and an annual increase of 342,000 tons in 2025/26 [4]. - Ending Stocks: The total global ending stocks increased from 15.501 million tons in 2021/22 to 16.532 million tons in 2025/26 - 11, with a monthly increase of 607,000 tons and an annual increase of 315,000 tons in 2025/26 [4].