国泰君安期货PPI分析与预测

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints of the Report - The trend of China's PPI is determined by the combined effect of weight and price change of each category. The core drivers are upstream resource and basic material industries. Based on two prediction methods, the year-on-year decline of PPI in 2026 will narrow and turn positive in Q2 or Q3 [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Basic Overview of China's PPI Data - China's PPI only measures industrial product prices, different from the US PPI which also covers services. It uses "dichotomy" and "industry method" classification systems. The PPI trend is mainly led by production materials. Both classification methods determine weights by sales output value, with a base period of 2020 [7][11][13] 2. Composition of PPI Weights and Core Driving Industries - PPI is calculated by weighted average of price indices of surveyed industries. Weights are estimated by "operating income" due to data limitations. Industries with high weights include computer, electrical machinery, etc. But industries with stable prices have limited impact on PPI. Upstream resources and basic materials are core drivers, like coal, oil, etc [16][20] - In October 2025, in PPI production materials, the year-on-year decline of mining was the largest; in PPI living materials, durable consumer goods had the largest decline. The current PPI decline is driven by international factors and supply - demand imbalance in some industries [22][24][26] 3. PPI Trend Calculation - One method is to estimate based on key industries. Assuming stable commodity prices in November 2025, PPI in 2026 will be driven by non - ferrous metals, coal, and black/chemical industries in sequence, and turn positive in Q2. The base effect in 2026 contributes significantly to the year - on - year recovery [28] - The second method is to calculate year - on - year from month - on - month. It is expected that the average monthly - on - monthly PPI in 2026 will be 0.02%, with an annual PPI of - 0.44% and a positive year - on - year reading in Q3 [30]