PPI 分析与预测

Report Overview - The report mainly analyzes the basic overview of China's PPI data, the composition of PPI weights, core driving industries, and forecasts the PPI trend in 2026 [1][4] Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report Core Viewpoints - China's PPI trend is determined by the combined effect of weights and price change amplitudes of various categories, with upstream resource and basic material industries as the core drivers [1] - Two methods are used to predict that the year - on - year decline of PPI in 2026 will narrow and turn positive, with the base effect contributing significantly to the year - on - year recovery [2] Summary by Directory 1. China PPI Data Basic Overview - China's PPI only includes the commodity production field, different from the US PPI which also covers services [7] - China's PPI uses two parallel classification systems: the dichotomy (production and living materials) and the industry - based method, with production materials dominating the PPI trend [11] - The weights of both classification systems are determined by the sales output value method, and they are adjusted every five years, with the current base period being 2020 [13] 2. PPI Weight's Composition and Core Driving Industries - PPI is calculated by weighted average of price indices of surveyed industries, and market generally uses "operating income" to estimate industry weights [16] - Industries like computer, electrical machinery have high weights but limited impact on PPI due to stable prices, while upstream resource industries such as coal, oil have significant influence [20] - In October 2025, the year - on - year decline of PPI production materials was 2.4%, with the mining industry having the largest decline, and among living materials, durable consumer goods had the largest decline [22][24] 3. PPI Trend Calculation - Based on the assumption of key commodity prices remaining stable in 2025 November, 2026 PPI year - on - year will turn positive in Q2, driven by non - ferrous metals, coal, and black/chemical industries successively [28] - Using the method of calculating year - on - year from month - on - month, it is predicted that the average monthly - on - month PPI in 2026 will be 0.02%, the annual PPI will be - 0.44%, and the year - on - year reading will turn positive in Q3 [30]