国投期货农产品日报-20251117

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Soybean (Bean 1): ☆☆☆ [1] - Soybean Oil: ななな [1] - Palm Oil: ななな [1] - Soybean Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Meal: ★☆☆ [1] - Rapeseed Oil: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: な☆☆ [1] - Live Hogs: ななな [1] - Eggs: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various agricultural products including soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, rapeseed oil, corn, live hogs, and eggs, with insights on market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price expectations [2][3][4] Summary by Category Soybean (Bean 1) - Domestic soybean futures prices are strong. Some enterprises raised soybean purchase prices last week, with high - protein soybeans having a price advantage. Due to adverse weather, domestic high - protein soybean supply is tight. The gap between domestic and imported soybeans is widening, and domestic soybean warehouse receipts are increasing. Imported US soybeans are expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with attention on US soybean exports and South American soybean planting [2] Soybean & Soybean Meal - The USDA November report showed a decrease in US new - crop soybean yield, production, exports, and ending stocks. However, the market had already priced in the positive expectations before the report, and the price of US soybeans dropped significantly after the report. South American soybean planting progress is slow, and the impact of La Nina on production needs attention. In the domestic market, soybean supply is sufficient, and crushing profit is poor. The strategy is to wait for the price to stabilize and then consider buying on dips [3] Soybean Oil & Palm Oil - The USDA report's positive impact is exhausted, and US soybean prices are in a sideways shock. It is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, waiting for South American crop performance and US soybean exports. Domestic soybean near - end crushing profit is poor, domestic soybean oil is strong, the oil - meal ratio is rising, and the soybean - palm oil spread is widening. Palm oil in Malaysia still has supply - demand pressure, and short - term supply - demand performance needs to be observed [4] Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil - The domestic rapeseed sector has declined recently due to the sharp drop in US soybeans after the USDA report. The global rapeseed production is adjusted up, and exports of some countries are also adjusted. Rapeseed products have a statistical premium over competitors, and demand is lackluster. The premium of rapeseed futures prices is expected to gradually decline, and the prices are under short - term pressure [6] Corn - Dalian corn futures are weakly volatile. Northeast corn new - grain increment is decreasing, and the price is slightly stronger. Shandong's spot supply has increased slightly. The USDA November report on US corn is neutral to bearish, and the price has dropped. There may be further adjustments to US corn yield. The impact of China's State Grain Reserves Corporation's imported corn auction needs attention, and the Dalian corn futures 01 contract is expected to correct [7] Live Hogs - Both the spot and futures prices of live hogs are weak. After the end of the second - round fattening in October, the spot price has been falling. The near - month futures contracts are at a low valuation, and the far - month contracts are also adjusting downwards. It is expected that there may be a second bottom in hog prices in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - Egg spot prices are weakly stable, and near - month futures contracts are under pressure, hitting new lows. Vegetable prices have peaked and declined, the 12 - month contract is converging to the spot price, and the current supply is high while demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to hold short positions in near - month contracts [9]