USDA 棉花月度报告解读：棉花：美棉产量大幅上调，新年度供给仍偏宽松-20251117

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The November USDA report shows that the global cotton production in the 2025/26 season has been significantly increased by 523,000 tons compared to September, while the global consumption has been slightly adjusted upwards by 11,000 tons. The import and export have both been increased by 65,000 tons. The期末 inventory has been significantly increased by 607,000 tons. The report is overall bearish, and the global cotton supply remains relatively loose in the new season. In the short - to - medium term, US cotton may continue to fluctuate in a low - level range [1][2]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025/26 Season Supply and Demand Data Adjustments - Production: The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season has been significantly increased by 523,000 tons compared to September. China's production has been increased by 218,000 tons to 7.294 million tons, Brazil's by 108,000 tons, and US cotton production by 194,000 tons to 3.073 million tons due to favorable weather in Texas and an increase in yield [1]. - Consumption: Global consumption has been slightly adjusted upwards by 11,000 tons, with no adjustments to the data of major consuming countries. Cotton consumption remains generally stable despite the easing of Sino - US relations [1]. - Import and Export: Global imports have been increased by 65,000 tons, with Vietnam's imports up by 21,000 tons and China's by 44,000 tons. Global exports have also been increased by 65,000 tons, with Brazil's exports up by 44,000 tons and the US's by 43,000 tons [1]. - 期末库存: The global期末库存 in the 2025/26 season has been significantly increased by 607,000 tons compared to September. China's期末库存 has been increased by 261,000 tons, the US's by 152,000 tons, and Brazil's by 65,000 tons [2]. 3.2 Global Cotton Supply and Demand Balance Sheet - Production: From 2021/22 to 2025/26 (November), the production of major cotton - producing countries such as China, Brazil, and the US has shown different trends. The total global production has increased by 174,000 tons from 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November) [4]. - Consumption: The total global consumption has decreased by 35,000 tons from 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November), with minor adjustments in different countries [4]. - Import: The total global import has increased by 212,000 tons from 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November), with significant increases in Vietnam and China [4]. - Export: The total global export has increased by 342,000 tons from 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November), with significant increases in Brazil and the US [4]. - 期末库存: The total global期末库存 has increased by 315,000 tons from 2024/25 to 2025/26 (November), with increases in major countries such as China, the US, and Brazil [4].