宏观经济专题：建筑开工走弱

Supply and Demand - Construction starts have weakened further, with operating rates for asphalt, cement dispatch, and grinding mills dropping to historical lows[2] - Industrial production remains at a historically high level, with PX operating rates at historical highs and PTA rates at historical mid-lows[2] - Demand for construction materials is weak, with rebar, wire rod, and building materials at historical low demand levels[2] Prices - International commodity prices for oil, copper, and gold have shown weak fluctuations, while aluminum prices have risen[3] - Domestic industrial prices are mixed, with black metals and coal prices recovering, while chemical products have mostly declined[3] Real Estate - New housing transactions have seen a significant year-on-year decline, with a 24% drop in transaction area for major cities compared to the previous two weeks[4] - Second-hand housing transactions remain weak, with year-on-year declines of 16% in Beijing and Shanghai, and 33% in Shenzhen compared to 2024[4] Exports - Port throughput increased by 4.8% year-on-year in early November, with export growth projected at approximately 9.6%[5] Liquidity - Recent weeks have seen fluctuating funding rates, with the R007 at 1.49% and DR007 at 1.47% as of November 14[5] - The central bank has conducted a net withdrawal of 19,808 billion yuan through reverse repos in the last two weeks[5] Risk Warning - There are risks associated with unexpected fluctuations in commodity prices and policy measures exceeding expectations[5]