2026年港股行业比较投资策略：乘势外资东风，锚定核心资产

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the improvement in PPI year-on-year will drive corporate profit recovery, which is a key factor for foreign capital returning to Chinese assets [3] - It is anticipated that the RMB exchange rate will continue to appreciate in 2026, leading to a re-evaluation of Chinese assets by foreign investors [3][12] - The report highlights that during historical phases of PPI recovery, both A-share and Hong Kong stock ROE have shown significant improvement, indicating a positive correlation between PPI growth and corporate profitability [16] Historical Review - Historical data shows a strong positive correlation between the RMB exchange rate and PPI year-on-year growth, particularly during phases of PPI recovery and RMB appreciation [7][9] - The report outlines four cycles of RMB appreciation and depreciation since 2015, noting that during appreciation phases, both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks generally experienced price increases [10][12] - The report identifies that the leading sectors during the appreciation phases were internet and cyclical stocks, benefiting from improved profitability expectations [15] Profitability Trends - The report indicates that during periods of PPI year-on-year growth, there is a notable improvement in ROE for both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, suggesting a direct impact of PPI on corporate earnings [16] - The report notes that as of the third quarter of 2025, A-share ROE has stabilized at the bottom, and Hong Kong stock ROE is expected to improve alongside PPI growth in 2026 [3][22] Foreign Investment Insights - The report highlights that foreign capital has been reassessing Chinese assets, with a significant increase in foreign participation in Hong Kong IPOs in 2025, indicating heightened interest in core assets [4] - The report mentions that the A-H premium is expected to continue narrowing, reflecting increased foreign interest in Hong Kong-listed core assets [4] - It is noted that over 30 major market cap companies in the A-share and Hong Kong markets belong to sectors such as technology, high-end manufacturing, and quality dividend stocks, which are expected to benefit from improving profitability [3][4] Sector Focus - The report identifies key sectors expected to benefit from improving ROE in 2026, including power equipment, internet (AI-related core assets), and cyclical sectors [3] - It emphasizes that sectors with strong competitive advantages, such as high-end manufacturing and specialty consumption, are likely to attract foreign investment [3] - The report also points out that domestic funds have room to increase their holdings in Hong Kong stocks, with significant portions of public fund portfolios allocated to Hong Kong [4][22]