房地产行业2025年10月月报：10月楼市成交同比增速由正转负，房地产高质量发展列入新的五年规划-20251118

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperforming the Market" [1] Core Views - The real estate market is experiencing a decline in sales, with new home transaction volume turning negative year-on-year due to high base effects from the previous year and weakening policy impacts [2][3] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, indicating a shift in focus from speculative investment to improving living conditions [2][3] Summary by Sections New Home Transactions - In October, new home transaction area increased by 3.6% month-on-month but decreased by 26.6% year-on-year, with a cumulative year-to-date decline of 7.2% [3][12] - First-tier cities saw a significant year-on-year decline in new home transactions, with Beijing down 28%, Shanghai down 32%, and Shenzhen down 61% [3][13] - Second-tier cities experienced a 19.5% year-on-year decline, while third and fourth-tier cities saw a 26.7% decrease [3][14] Second-Hand Home Transactions - Second-hand home transaction area decreased by 14.8% month-on-month and 30.0% year-on-year in October, with a cumulative year-to-date increase of 3.4% [20][21] - First and second-tier cities also reported negative year-on-year growth in second-hand home transactions, with notable declines in cities like Beijing and Shenzhen [20][21] Inventory and Absorption - New home inventory and absorption cycles decreased, with a total inventory area of 11,291.6 million square meters, down 1.3% month-on-month and 12.3% year-on-year [3][9] - The overall absorption cycle is 18.2 months, indicating a slight improvement in inventory management [3][9] Land Market - The land market saw a 12.5% year-on-year decline in transaction volume, with average land prices decreasing by 14.7% [3][10] - The average land premium rate was 3.5%, reflecting a slight increase from the previous month but a decrease year-on-year [3][10] Real Estate Companies - The top 100 real estate companies reported a 39.8% year-on-year decline in total sales in October, with a cumulative decline of 16.7% year-to-date [3][10] - However, land acquisition amounts increased by 8.2% year-on-year, indicating a potential recovery in land investment [3][10] Policy Developments - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes high-quality development in real estate, with specific strategies to improve housing quality and meet the needs of urban workers [3][20] - Local policies are being optimized to support the construction of quality housing, with cities like Chengdu and Guangzhou implementing new design standards [3][20] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with stable fundamentals in core cities, smaller firms showing significant breakthroughs, and commercial real estate companies exploring new consumption scenarios [3][20]