1-10月财政数据点评：今年末、明年初增量政策值得期待

Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure - In October, public fiscal revenue was CNY 22,614.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with tax revenue at CNY 20,700.0 billion, up 8.6%[6] - Non-tax revenue fell to CNY 1,914.0 billion, down 33.0% year-on-year, a significant decline of 21.5 percentage points compared to the previous month[6] - Public fiscal expenditure in October was CNY 17,761.0 billion, down 9.8% year-on-year, marking a negative growth shift from September[16] Tax Contributions - Domestic value-added tax increased by 7.2% in October, contributing 3.0 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[8] - Corporate income tax rose by 7.3%, contributing 0.7 percentage points to the tax revenue growth, while personal income tax surged by 27.3%, contributing 2.9 percentage points[8] - Consumption tax revenue grew by 4.4%, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points to the overall tax revenue growth[8] Government Fund Performance - From January to October, government fund budget revenue totaled CNY 34,473.0 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8%[19] - Land use rights transfer revenue was CNY 24,982.0 billion, down 7.4% year-on-year, indicating a worsening decline trend[19] - Government fund expenditure for the same period reached CNY 80,892.0 billion, a year-on-year increase of 15.4%[22] Economic Outlook - The fiscal expenditure and financing pace in 2025 supported a GDP growth of 5.2% in the first three quarters[25] - Incremental policies are anticipated at the end of this year and early next year to bolster economic growth, with a focus on the upcoming central economic work conference and the "Two Sessions" for fiscal and policy financial tools[25] - Risks include increasing overseas recession risks and heightened geopolitical uncertainties[26]