隆众资讯晨会纪要-20251118

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - Macro - Financial: A - shares are in a weak and volatile state. For stock index futures, it's recommended to take a wait - and - see approach with a volatile mindset. For treasury bond futures, although the market's expectation of easing has declined, there's still a possibility of interest rate cuts, and it's judged that Q4 will see more easing measures. [8][10] - Black (Steel and Minerals): In the short - term, steel and minerals are expected to fluctuate or rebound, while in the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on rallies is maintained. [12] - Coal and Coke: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the disturbances caused by coal mine production, safety inspections, and changes in downstream hot metal production. [14] - Ferroalloys: There's a risk of the silicon iron and manganese silicon futures prices rising first and then falling. [16] - Soda Ash and Glass: Currently, it's advisable to take a wait - and - see approach. [17] - Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials: For zinc, it's recommended to hold short positions at high levels. For lithium carbonate, there's an opportunity to buy on dips. For industrial silicon, it can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. For polysilicon, it will continue to fluctuate. [19][20][22][23] - Agricultural Products: Cotton is expected to fluctuate at a low level. For sugar, it's advisable to wait and see before a large amount of new sugar enters the market. Eggs may fluctuate. Apples will fluctuate. Corn should be watched for the upper pressure on the futures price. For jujubes, it's advisable to wait and see. For live pigs, it's recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies for near - month contracts. [25][26][28][30][31][33] - Energy and Chemicals: Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate. Fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. Polyolefins are expected to fluctuate weakly. For rubber, attention should be paid to the strategy of expanding the ru - nr spread. For methanol, near - month contracts should be treated with a weakly - fluctuating mindset, and far - month contracts can be slightly long - configured after a rebound. For caustic soda, it's advisable to wait for a long - position opportunity after short - position reduction. For asphalt, the future focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game. The polyester industry chain is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. For liquefied petroleum gas, it's not advisable to chase the rise, and short - selling on rallies can be considered in the medium - to - long - term. For pulp, it will maintain a wide - range fluctuation. For logs, it's expected to be under pressure. Urea prices are expected to strengthen. Synthetic rubber will maintain a bottom - range fluctuation in the short - term. [35][37][39][40][41][43][44][45][46][47][48][49][51] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock Index Futures: A - shares are in a weak and volatile state. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.46% to 3972.03 points, with a trading volume of 1.93 trillion yuan. The decline in October's macro data may be due to technical factors, export slowdown, "anti - involution", and the real - estate downturn [8]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The market's expectation of easing has declined, but there's still a possibility of interest rate cuts. The money market fluctuates, and the bond market shows a seesaw effect with the stock market. The reasons for the decline in October's macro data are similar to those of stock index futures [10]. Black (Steel and Minerals) - Policy and Market Outlook: Macro events have basically landed, and the industry is expected to return to fundamentals in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the Central Political Bureau Meeting in early December and the Central Economic Work Conference in mid - December on the market's macro expectations [11]. - Fundamentals: On the demand side, real - estate sales are weak, infrastructure projects face capital pressure, and overall building material demand is weak, while the demand for coils is fair. On the supply side, steel mill profits are low, iron - water production may decline, and the five major steel products' inventory is 22.7% higher than last year [11]. - Valuation and Trend: The futures prices of raw materials fluctuate, and steel prices are likely to remain weak. In the short - term, steel and minerals may fluctuate or rebound, and in the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on rallies is maintained [12]. - Spot Market: Steel and iron ore spot prices have increased, and the trading volume of steel is fair, while the trading volume of iron ore has decreased [13]. Coal and Coke - Current Situation: Coal mine production has increased slightly but remains at a low level. Coke's fourth - round price increase has been implemented, but profits are still negative. Steel mills' hot metal production has increased slightly, supporting raw - material demand in the short - term [15]. - Future Outlook: Coal supply may be restricted in the medium - term, but there may be an increase in the short - term. The potential negative feedback risk still restricts coal and coke prices in the short - term [15]. Ferroalloys - Market Outlook: There's a risk of the silicon iron and manganese silicon futures prices rising first and then falling. The manganese silicon futures may be under pressure due to potential inventory accumulation at Tianjin Port [16]. - Fluctuation Reason: The silicon iron futures were affected by the lanthanum market, and the overall black market sentiment was high [16]. Soda Ash and Glass - Fluctuation Reason: The soda ash and glass industry chain is fluctuating, and glass is relatively weak [17]. - Viewpoint: Currently, it's advisable to take a wait - and - see approach. For soda ash, inventory has decreased, and production has slightly declined. For glass, the strong sales situation has not continued, and there's a high inventory of mid - stream futures [17]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Zinc: As of November 17, domestic zinc inventories have decreased. Zinc prices are in a downward - fluctuating trend with potential for rebounds. It's recommended to hold short positions at high levels [19]. - Lithium Carbonate: In November, demand has increased slightly, and inventory has decreased by about 1.5 million tons. There's an opportunity to buy on dips [20][21]. - Industrial Silicon: The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It can be bought on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [22]. - Polysilicon: The industry still expects "anti - involution" policies. The price will continue to fluctuate [23]. Agricultural Products - Cotton: Supply pressure is high, demand is weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The US and global cotton production and inventory have increased, while Brazilian cotton may have a slight reduction in production [25]. - Sugar: The global sugar supply is expected to be in surplus. Domestic sugar prices are affected by production increases and low import costs. It's advisable to wait and see before a large amount of new sugar enters the market [26][27]. - Eggs: Spot prices are weak, and futures prices may fluctuate. The in - production laying - hen inventory is high, but it's expected to decline gradually [28][29]. - Apples: The price is expected to fluctuate. The acquisition of late - maturing Fuji apples is coming to an end, and the inventory is relatively low [30]. - Corn: Spot prices have rebounded, but there's still supply pressure. It's necessary to pay attention to the upper pressure on the futures price [31][32]. - Jujubes: The price is in a low - level and stable state, and it's advisable to wait and see [33]. - Live Pigs: Supply pressure continues, and demand is average. It's recommended to take a short - selling approach on rallies for near - month contracts [33]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical influence has weakened, and prices have fallen. The market expects a supply surplus in Q1 next year, and OPEC +'s measures to stabilize prices have limited effects [35]. - Fuel Oil: Prices will follow crude oil prices, and the supply - demand structure is loose [37]. - Polyolefins: Supply pressure is high, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly. Although production enterprises are suffering losses, there may be some support [39]. - Rubber: The price may fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the strategy of expanding the ru - nr spread [40]. - Methanol: The market is highly volatile, and the supply - demand situation is weak. It's recommended to take a weakly - fluctuating approach for near - month contracts and a slightly long - configured approach for far - month contracts after a rebound [41]. - Caustic Soda: Spot prices are falling, and futures prices are weak. It's advisable to wait for a long - position opportunity after short - position reduction [43]. - Asphalt: The price fluctuation range is expected to increase, and the future focus is on the price bottom after the winter storage game [44]. - Polyester Industry Chain: The upstream supply structure has improved marginally, but downstream demand is weak. The industry chain is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [45]. - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The price has risen, but it's not advisable to chase the rise. Short - selling on rallies can be considered in the medium - to - long - term [46]. - Pulp: The price will maintain a wide - range fluctuation. Attention should be paid to the digestion of old warehouse receipts and spot trading [47]. - Logs: The price is expected to be under pressure. The supply pressure has slightly decreased, and the inventory is expected to accumulate [48]. - Urea: Spot and futures prices are expected to strengthen [49][50]. - Synthetic Rubber: The price will maintain a bottom - range fluctuation in the short - term. It's advisable to be cautious when going long and consider selling call options after a rebound [51].