国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20251118

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No clear industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The report provides trend forecasts for various commodities in the black series on November 18, 2025. Iron ore and logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly; rebar, hot - rolled coils, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese are expected to have a strong - biased oscillation, with ferrosilicon's bias due to continuous production cuts in the main production areas and silicomanganese's due to sector sentiment disturbances; coke and coking coal are expected to have a wide - range oscillation [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity Iron Ore - Fundamentals: The previous day's futures price was 788.5 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan (2.07%). Imported ore prices generally rose, while domestic ore prices fell. Some basis and spread values changed [4]. - Macro and Industry News: In October, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 4.9% year - on - year, 0.17% month - on - month, and 6.1% from January to October [5]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [5]. Hot - Rolled Coils - Fundamentals: The previous day's HC2601 futures price was 3,302 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan (1.57%). Spot prices in various regions rose. Some basis and spread values changed [8]. - Macro and Industry News: According to the November 13th weekly data from Steel Union, in terms of production, rebar decreased by 8.54 tons, hot - rolled coils by 4.5 tons; in terms of total inventory, rebar decreased by 16.37 tons, hot - rolled coils increased by 0.07 tons; in terms of apparent demand, rebar decreased by 2.15 tons, hot - rolled coils by 0.71 tons [9]. - Trend Intensity: 1 (strong - biased) [11]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Fundamentals: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese rose. Spot prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia were 5,200 yuan/ton and 5,600 yuan/ton respectively. Some basis, near - far month spread, and cross - variety spread values changed [14]. - Macro and Industry News: Ningxia Zhongwei Yuexin overhauled a 25,500kva ferrosilicon furnace, reducing daily output by about 70 tons. As of November 14th, the total manganese ore inventory decreased by 12.05 tons. There were price changes in ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in different regions, and electricity prices in some areas fluctuated. Some companies finalized ferrosilicon procurement prices [14][15][16]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [17]. Coke and Coking Coal - Fundamentals: The previous day's JM2601 coking coal futures price was 1,210 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan (1.5%); J2601 coke futures price was 1,710 yuan/ton, up 40.5 yuan (2.4%). Spot prices remained mostly unchanged. Some basis and spread values changed [18]. - Macro and Industry News: The National Development and Reform Commission organized a video conference on energy supply guarantee for the 2025 - 2026 heating season [19]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [19]. Logs - Fundamentals: Futures prices of different contracts remained mostly unchanged. Spot prices of various types of logs in different regions remained stable. Some basis and spread values changed [21]. - Macro and Industry News: The General Administration of Customs decided to abolish the announcement on suspending the import of US logs from November 10, 2025 [23]. - Trend Intensity: 0 (neutral) [23].