国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：农产品-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Palm oil: Short - term negatives are fully priced in, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [2][4] - Soybean oil: With the stabilization of US soybeans, soybean oil is expected to fluctuate strongly [2][4] - Soybean meal: As US soybeans are strong, Dalian soybean meal may follow and rebound [2][13] - Soybean No.1: It may follow the rebound of the soybean market [2][14] - Corn: It will move in a range [2][17] - Sugar: Attention should be paid to the volume of new sugar transactions [2][21] - Cotton: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses the futures price [2][26] - Eggs: The near - term is weak and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse spread pattern [2][30] - Pigs: The expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed, and the pressure is gradually being released [2][32] - Peanuts: Attention should be paid to the spot market [2][35] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Palm Oil and Soybean Oil - Fundamental Data: Palm oil futures (day session) closed at 8,680 yuan/ton, up 0.42%; soybean oil futures (day session) closed at 8,282 yuan/ton, up 0.31%. Spot prices of palm oil in Guangdong dropped 20 yuan/ton, while that of first - grade soybean oil in Guangdong remained unchanged [4] - Macro and Industry News: From November 1 - 15, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil production increased 4.09% month - on - month. Exports estimated by AmSpec decreased 10% and by SGS decreased 44.9% compared to the same period last month. Malaysia set the December palm oil reference price at 4,206.38 ringgit/ton with an export tax rate of 10.0% [5][6][8] - Trend Intensity: Palm oil and soybean oil both have a trend intensity of 1 [12] Soybean Meal and Soybean No.1 - Fundamental Data: DCE soybean No.1 2601 (day session) closed at 4,178 yuan/ton, down 0.10%; DCE soybean meal 2601 (day session) closed at 3,043 yuan/ton, down 1.23%. CBOT soybean 01 rose 3.12% [14] - Macro and Industry News: On November 17, CBOT soybean futures hit a 17 - month high as China's COFCO Group increased its purchase of US soybeans, at least 840,000 tons [14][16] - Trend Intensity: Both soybean meal and soybean No.1 have a trend intensity of +1 [16] Corn - Fundamental Data: The price of C2601 was 2,182 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume of the corn market increased by 115,065 hands, and the open interest decreased by 22,020 hands [18] - Macro and Industry News: Northern corn prices increased, and Guangdong's prices also rose. Northeast's deep - processing corn prices strengthened, and North China's prices generally increased [19] - Trend Intensity: Corn has a trend intensity of 0 [20] Sugar - Fundamental Data: The raw sugar price was 14.75 cents/pound, down 0.1. The mainstream spot price was 5,650 yuan/ton, down 110 [21] - Macro and Industry News: The 25/26 Indian sugar export quota is 150 million tons. Brazil's October sugar production increased 1% year - on - year, and exports increased 13% [21] - Trend Intensity: Sugar has a trend intensity of 0 [24] Cotton - Fundamental Data: CF2601 (day session) closed at 13,445 yuan/ton, down 0.04%. The trading volume increased by 103,355 hands, and the open interest increased by 25,349 hands [26] - Macro and Industry News: Cotton spot trading improved slightly, cotton yarn prices were stable but trading was weak. ICE cotton futures rose slightly [27] - Trend Intensity: Cotton has a trend intensity of 0 [29] Eggs - Fundamental Data: Egg 2512 closed at 2,987 yuan/500 kg, down 1.84%. Egg 2601 closed at 3,499 yuan/500 kg, down 0.68% [30] - Trend Intensity: Eggs have a trend intensity of 0 [30] Pigs - Fundamental Data: Henan's spot price was 11,680 yuan/ton, down 300. The trading volume of the live pig 2601 contract increased by 20,120 hands, and the open interest increased by 6,579 hands [32] - Trend Intensity: Pigs have a trend intensity of - 2 [33] Peanuts - Fundamental Data: PK601 closed at 7,884 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The trading volume of the peanut market increased by 59,331 hands, and the open interest increased by 9,799 hands [35] - Macro and Industry News: In Henan, peanut prices were stable and strong; in Jilin and Liaoning, prices were stable and weak [36] - Trend Intensity: Peanuts have a trend intensity of 0 [37]