宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025年11月18日）-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore 2601 contract is expected to be weak in the short - term, oscillate in the medium - term, and oscillate weakly during the day. It is recommended to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, as the supply - demand pattern has not improved and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. - The iron ore market is expected to maintain an oscillating trend. Although the demand has improved, the supply remains high, and the market fundamentals have not improved. The short - term positive factor is the change in the variety arbitrage logic. It is necessary to pay attention to the performance of steel [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term outlook is weak, the medium - term is oscillating, and the intraday view is oscillating weakly. The reference view is to pay attention to the pressure at the MA60 line, with the core logic being that the supply - demand pattern has not improved and the upward driving force is not strong [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply - demand pattern of iron ore has changed little. The resumption of production by steel mills has increased the terminal consumption of ore, but due to poor profitability of steel mills and unsolved industrial contradictions in the steel market, the demand improvement space is limited and the positive effect is weak. - The arrival of ore at domestic ports has continued to decline, but the shipments from overseas miners have increased significantly and returned to the high level of the year. According to the shipping schedule, the subsequent arrivals will bottom out and rebound. The supply of foreign ore is active, and the supply of domestic ore is stable with a slight increase, resulting in a high supply of ore. - Currently, the demand for iron ore has improved, but the supply remains high, so the fundamentals of the ore market have not improved and the upward driving force is not strong. The short - term positive factor is the change in the variety arbitrage logic. It is expected that the ore price will maintain an oscillating trend, and the performance of steel should be monitored [2].