宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025年11月18日）-20251118

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold: Short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "oscillation", and "oscillation with a downward bias" respectively, and the reference view is "wait - and - see". The core logic is that the Fed has turned hawkish, causing the gold price to decline in the short term [1][3]. - Copper: Short - term, mid - term, and intraday views are "oscillation", "strength", and "oscillation with an upward bias" respectively, and the reference view is "long - term bullish". The core logic is that macro - economic conditions are loose and there are mine - end production cuts. In the short term, the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs may cause copper prices to oscillate, but in the long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices [1][4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold - Price Performance: On Friday, the gold price dropped significantly from its high, erasing all weekly gains. On Monday, it maintained a weak trend, with the New York gold price diving in the late trading and approaching the $4000 mark [3]. - Driving Factors: The recent decline in the gold price is largely due to the Fed's hawkish turn. CME FedWatch Tool data shows that the market's expectation of a rate cut in December 2025 has dropped below 50%. Short - term gold price has fallen after a rise, and long - position holders have a strong willingness to take profits. Attention should be paid to the support at the $4000 mark of New York gold [3]. Copper - Price Performance: Overnight, the copper price continued its weak oscillation. The recent decline in the copper price is mainly due to the Fed's hawkish turn, which has reduced the market's rate - cut expectations. The London copper price is at a near - 5 - year high and faces strong technical pressure [4]. - Driving Factors: In the short term, the Fed's hawkish stance and technical pressure at historical highs may cause copper prices to oscillate. In the long - term, macro - economic easing and supply contraction expectations will support copper prices [4].