宝城期货螺纹钢早报（2025年11月18日）-20251118

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel price of rebar is expected to continue the oscillatory trend, with the short - term, medium - term trend being oscillatory and the intraday trend being weakly oscillatory. Attention should be paid to the support at the MA5 line [1]. - The fundamentals of rebar have not improved in the situation of weak supply and demand. The steel price is under pressure, but is supported by low valuation and cost. The subsequent trend depends on the demand performance [2]. 3. Summary according to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - For rebar 2601, the short - term, medium - term trend is oscillatory, and the intraday trend is weakly oscillatory. The view is to pay attention to the support at the MA5 line. The core logic is that the fundamentals are weakly stable and the steel price continues to oscillate [1]. 3.2 Market Driving Logic - Market sentiment has warmed up and ferrous metals have rebounded collectively, but the supply - demand pattern of rebar has not improved. Although rebar production has continued to decline, the inventory level is high and the sustainability is questionable, so the positive effect on the supply side is limited [2]. - Rebar demand is poor, with high - frequency indicators remaining at a low level in recent years. The downstream industry has not improved, and demand will seasonally weaken, dragging down the steel price [2]. - The supply of rebar has shrunk to a low level, but demand is weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and the steel price is under pressure. The relative positives are the low valuation and cost support [2].