研究所晨会观点精萃-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the Fed's Vice Chair Jefferson reiterated the need for cautious policy adjustment, cooling the expectation of a December rate cut, leading to a rebound in the US dollar index and a continued decline in global risk appetite. Domestically, China's October economic data slowed year - on - year and fell short of expectations, with the central bank restarting treasury bond trading to release liquidity, but the Fed's hawkish signals dampened risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market focuses on domestic stimulus policies, economic growth, and Fed policy expectations [3][4]. - Different asset classes have different trends. For example, stocks, bonds, and various commodities are mostly in a short - term volatile state, and specific trading strategies vary by asset [3][4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock Index: Affected by sectors such as biomedicine, precious metals, and insurance, the domestic stock market fell. With economic data weakening and the Fed's hawkish signals, the short - term macro upward drive is weak, and the stock index is in short - term volatility. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [4]. - Precious Metals: The precious metals market fell on Monday night. Due to the strong US dollar and reduced expectations of a US rate cut next month, the short - term is volatile, but the medium - to - long - term upward trend remains. Short - term wait - and - see, medium - to - long - term buy on dips [4]. Black Metals - Steel: The steel market rebounded on Monday, driven by market sentiment. However, the fundamentals are still weak, with demand declining and supply being restricted by losses. The downward space below 3000 points for rebar is limited, and low - level buying opportunities can be considered [5]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore price rebounded on Monday. The bottom of pig iron production is uncertain, and the supply is in a state of over - supply. It is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron were flat on Monday, while the futures prices rebounded. The demand for ferroalloys decreased, and the supply of silicon manganese decreased slightly while that of silicon iron increased slightly. The futures prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [8]. Chemicals - Soda Ash: The soda ash futures contract oscillated on Monday. Supply decreased marginally due to some device overhauls but remained under pressure. Demand for heavy soda was stable, and that for light soda improved slightly. Short - term range - bound, medium - to - long - term bearish [9]. - Glass: The glass futures contract was slightly stronger on Monday. Supply remained stable, demand improved marginally, and inventory was still high. The overall supply - demand situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: US copper inventories are at a historical high, and domestic refined copper de - stocking is less than expected. The shutdown of an Indonesian copper mine supports the price, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [9]. - Aluminum: The price of Shanghai aluminum continued to fall on Monday, restricted by the reduced expectation of a Fed rate cut. The inventory is difficult to deplete, and if the expectation is repaired later, the price may face a significant correction [10]. - Tin: The supply side has a tight situation, and the demand side is weak. The inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. The price is expected to remain high and volatile in the medium - to - short term [11]. - Lithium Carbonate: Multiple contracts of lithium carbonate hit the daily limit on Monday. The market quickly digested negative news, and the demand logic prevails. It is oscillating strongly, but supply - side disturbances and hedging pressure need to be watched [12]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon futures contract rose slightly on Monday. After the end of the wet season, production in the southwest decreased significantly, and the supply - demand situation is weak. It is expected to oscillate within a range [12]. - Polysilicon: The polysilicon futures contract fell on Monday. There is a stalemate between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to oscillate in a high - level range, and buying on dips can be considered [13]. Energy and Chemicals - Methanol: The inland methanol market is weak, and the port market has a strong basis in the morning. Inventory is rising, supply is expected to increase, and demand is weak. It may fall in the short term but is supported by gas restrictions and cost factors [15]. - PP: The PP market is in a weak and volatile state. The demand has improved, but the supply growth rate is too fast, leading to increased inventory. With the approaching of the off - season, the price is expected to continue to decline [15]. - LLDPE: The polyethylene market price is adjusted. The core contradiction is the continuous accumulation of supply pressure, and the demand support is weakening. The price is expected to be under pressure [16]. - Urea: The urea market fluctuates slightly. Supply pressure persists, demand is differentiated, and the price is under downward pressure in the short term but may stabilize in the medium - to - long term [16]. Agricultural Products - US Soybeans: The US soybean futures price rose overnight. The export inspection volume was in line with expectations, and the monthly crushing volume reached a record high [17]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Meal: The domestic soybean meal supply - demand is loose, the inventory is high, and the risk of a future gap is reduced. With the weakening of US soybeans, the price may correct, but it may also stabilize later [18]. - Soybean and Rapeseed Oil: The soybean oil market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand but is supported by the oil mill's price - holding and export rumors. The rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported [19]. - Palm Oil: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in December, and the export volume decreased significantly in November. The domestic inventory increased, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [20]. - Corn: The current corn inventories in northern ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are low. The futures price may correct the basis, and the price is expected to be slightly stronger [20]. - Pigs: The pig price was weak over the weekend. The winter consumption peak has not fully arrived, and the supply is in excess. The price is expected to decline in the short term, but there is some support from farmers' reluctance to sell [21].