棕榈油：短期利空暂充分，关注产地去库进程，豆油：美豆企稳，豆油偏强震荡

Report Summary Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Palm oil: Short - term negative factors are fully priced in, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [1]. - Soybean oil: With the stabilization of US soybeans, soybean oil will fluctuate strongly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - Futures Prices and Trading Volume - Palm oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,680 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.42%, and (night session) 8,688 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.09%. Trading volume is 585,987 lots, a decrease of 1,258 lots, and open interest is 419,635 lots, a decrease of 13,845 lots [1]. - Soybean oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 8,282 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.31%, and (night session) 8,284 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.02%. Trading volume is 275,749 lots, an increase of 29,309 lots, and open interest is 452,776 lots, a decrease of 6,967 lots [1]. - Rapeseed oil主力: Closing price (day session) is 9,880 yuan/ton with a daily decrease of 0.43%, and (night session) 9,894 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.14%. Trading volume is 251,460 lots, a decrease of 12,202 lots, and open interest is 245,352 lots, a decrease of 3,228 lots [1]. - Spot Prices and Basis - Palm oil (24 - degree, Guangdong): Spot price is 8,570 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and basis is - 110 yuan/ton [1]. - First - grade soybean oil (Guangdong): Spot price is 8,640 yuan/ton, unchanged, and basis is 358 yuan/ton [1]. - Fourth - grade imported rapeseed oil (Guangxi): Spot price is 10,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton, and basis is 430 yuan/ton [1]. - Price Spreads - Rapeseed - palm oil futures主力 spread: Previous trading day was 1,279 yuan/ton, and the day before was 1,223 yuan/ton [1]. - Soybean - palm oil futures主力 spread: - 398 yuan/ton, compared with - 388 yuan/ton previously [1]. 2. Macro and Industry News - Palm Oil in Malaysia - From November 1 - 15, 2025, palm oil yield per unit area increased by 1.82% month - on - month, oil extraction rate increased by 0.43% month - on - month, and production increased by 4.09% month - on - month [2]. - AmSpec: Export volume from November 1 - 15 was 702,692 tons, a 10% decrease compared with the same period last month [3]. - SGS: Estimated export volume from November 1 - 15 was 334,295 tons, a 44.9% decrease compared with the same period last month [5]. - Malaysia set the reference price for palm oil exports in December at 4,206.38 ringgit/ton, with an export tax rate of 10.0%, compared with 4,262.23 ringgit/ton in November [5]. - US Agriculture - The USDA corrected the cumulative daily sales announcement. The sale of 130,000 tons of corn to Japan on October 24, 2025, was removed, and the sale of soybeans to China on November 3, 2025, was corrected from 232,000 tons to 132,000 tons [5]. - The USDA did not republish the weekly US crop growth report after the federal government resumed operation [5]. - US Soybean Crushing - In October, NOPA member companies crushed 227.647 million bushels of soybeans, a 15.1% increase from September and a 13.9% increase from October 2024, setting a new record. As of October 31, soybean oil inventory reached 1.305 billion pounds, a 5.0% increase from the end of September and a 21.5% increase from the same period last year [6]. - Brazilian Soybeans - As of November 15, the soybean sowing rate in Brazil was 69.0%, compared with 58.4% last week, 73.8% last year, and a five - year average of 67.2% [7]. - In the first two weeks of November, Brazil exported 2,302,124.10 tons of soybeans, with an average daily export volume of 230,212.40 tons, a 71% increase compared with the average daily export volume in November last year [7]. - Ukrainian Crops - As of November 13, Ukraine harvested 47.937 million tons of grains and legumes on 9.826 million hectares of land, with an average yield of 4.88 tons per hectare. Among them, 4.654 million tons of soybeans were harvested on 1.96 million hectares of land, with an average yield of 2.38 tons per hectare [8]. 3. Trend Intensity - Palm oil trend intensity is 1, and soybean oil trend intensity is 1. The trend intensity ranges from - 2 to 2, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [9].