LLDPE：农需或趋见顶，关注供应压力

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The raw - material end crude oil price fluctuates, the monomer profit is compressed, the PE disk is under pressure to decline. Although the downstream agricultural film and packaging film industries have strong rigid demand support, the willingness of the middle and lower reaches to hold goods has weakened after last week's decline. The upstream tries to maintain prices, resulting in passive accumulation of factory inventories and a slight strengthening of the basis. There is no major short - term contradiction on the supply side, but in the medium term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The closing price of L2601 was 6843, with a daily decline of 0.15%. The trading volume was 272,216, and the open interest increased by 1540. The 01 - contract basis was - 23, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 59 [1]. - Spot Price: The spot prices in North China, East China, and South China were 6820 yuan/ton, 6950 yuan/ton, and 7110 yuan/ton respectively [1]. 3.2 Spot News - The futures market is under pressure, the basis of North China LL has gradually recovered to around par, and the number of warehouse receipts has decreased recently. The linear futures opened lower and fluctuated. Some prices of CNPC South China were lowered, while some prices of Inner Mongolia Jiutai and Zhong煤 Yulin were raised. The demand in the agricultural film industry continued to weaken, and the order follow - up may be weak. Downstream industries mainly stock up according to existing orders, providing weak support to the market [1]. 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - The raw - material end crude oil price fluctuates, the monomer profit is compressed, and the PE disk is under pressure to decline. The downstream agricultural film and packaging film industries have strong rigid demand support, but the willingness of the middle and lower reaches to hold goods has weakened after last week's decline. The upstream tries to maintain prices, resulting in passive accumulation of factory inventories and a slight strengthening of the basis. On the supply side, Guangxi Petrochemical is gradually starting up, but the unexpected maintenance volume in November has increased compared with expectations, and there is no major short - term contradiction. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the supply - demand pressure brought by high existing production capacity and weakening demand [2]. 3.4 Trend Strength - The LLDPE trend strength is 0, with the trend strength ranging from - 2 to 2, where - 2 means the most bearish and 2 means the most bullish [3].