农产品早报 2025-11-18-20251118

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The global soybean supply in the 24/25 season has decreased, and the bottom of import costs may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to trade sideways [3][5]. - Malaysian palm oil exports decreased in November, and production showed a mixed trend. Palm oil is expected to trade sideways, and a shift to a bullish strategy can be considered if there are signs of production decline [7][9]. - Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. With increasing sugar production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, it is advisable to look for opportunities to short at high prices [11][12]. - Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to trade sideways. Weak downstream demand and high domestic production this year may lead to short - term sideways movement in cotton prices [14][15]. - Egg prices were mostly stable with minor fluctuations. The egg futures market is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and a short - selling strategy can be considered on rebounds in the medium term [17][18]. - Pig prices were half stable and half falling. The overall trend of the pig futures market is bearish, but there may be short - term rebounds. It is recommended to use a reverse spread strategy first and then short on rebounds [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal - Market Conditions: On Monday, CBOT soybeans rose sharply, and Brazilian soybean premiums increased by 4 - 5 cents per bushel. Domestic soybean meal spot prices decreased slightly by 20 yuan/ton, and trading and pick - up were good. MYSTEEL expects this week's soybean crushing volume to be 234.92 tons, up from 207.76 tons last week. Last week, soybean and soybean meal inventories decreased month - on - month but remained high year - on - year [2]. - Supply and Demand: In the next two weeks, rainfall is expected to resume in the under - rained areas of the Brazilian soybean - growing region, and the planting progress has reached 71% as of last Thursday. The USDA monthly report lowered the global new - crop soybean production by about 4.1 million tons and the ending inventory by 2 million tons. US soybean production was lowered by about 1.3 million tons, but exports were lowered by 1.36 million tons, resulting in only a 280,000 - ton reduction in US soybean inventory [3]. - Strategy: The bottom of soybean import costs may have emerged, but upward movement requires greater production cuts. Domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are high, and soybean meal is expected to trade sideways [5]. Palm Oil - Market Conditions: From November 1 - 10, Malaysian palm oil exports decreased by 9.5% - 12.28% compared to the previous month, and the first 15 days saw a 10% decrease. Production showed a mixed trend. On Monday, domestic palm oil prices traded sideways, with stable spot basis [7]. - Strategy: Palm oil is expected to trade sideways. A shift to a bullish strategy can be considered if there are signs of production decline [9]. Sugar - Market Conditions: On Monday, Zhengzhou sugar futures prices fell. Spot sugar prices also decreased. In October, sugar production in the central - southern region of Brazil increased by 16.4% year - on - year, and the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports decreased [11]. - Strategy: With increasing sugar production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere in the 2025/26 season, it is advisable to look for opportunities to short at high prices [12]. Cotton - Market Conditions: On Monday, Zhengzhou cotton futures prices continued to trade sideways. The global cotton production in the 2025/26 season increased compared to the September forecast. As of November 13, the cumulative cotton inspection in China increased year - on - year. The spinning mill operating rate increased slightly week - on - week but was lower than the same period last year and the five - year average. The national commercial cotton inventory increased year - on - year [14]. - Strategy: Weak downstream demand and high domestic production this year may lead to short - term sideways movement in cotton prices [15]. Eggs - Market Conditions: Yesterday, national egg prices were mostly stable with minor fluctuations. Supply was sufficient, and market trading was inactive [17]. - Strategy: The egg futures market is expected to trade sideways in the short term, and a short - selling strategy can be considered on rebounds in the medium term [18]. Pigs - Market Conditions: Yesterday, domestic pig prices were half stable and half falling. After continuous price drops, farmers were reluctant to sell, and downstream procurement enthusiasm increased [20]. - Strategy: The overall trend of the pig futures market is bearish, but there may be short - term rebounds. It is recommended to use a reverse spread strategy first and then short on rebounds [21].