12?降息概率延续?低，贵?属调整

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the precious metals market is expected to enter a price regression phase after over - anticipation. The price adjustment with reduced volatility will continue, and attention should be paid to the release of US GDP and non - farm payroll data this week [1][3]. - In the long term, the bullish trend of precious metals remains. Debt over - issuance and de - globalization, as the core drivers of the decline in the US dollar's credit, have not reversed. Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the US dollar's credit, and silver benefits from the spill - over effect. In 2026, the global economy may shift from a soft landing to a mild recovery, which is conducive to the release of silver's long - term elasticity [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - The US government has ended the "shutdown", and states are restarting the distribution of "Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program" (SNAP) relief funds. However, the "big and beautiful" tax and expenditure bill has tightened the SNAP system, and about 300,000 people in the US are expected to lose SNAP eligibility [2]. - According to the minutes of the Japanese Economic and Fiscal Policy Meeting, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda said that the Bank of Japan is pursuing an interest rate level that ensures a smooth landing. The potential inflation rate is still below the target level, so it will maintain an accommodative monetary policy stance, but there are risks in maintaining an overly accommodative monetary policy for a long time [2]. - The US November New York Fed Manufacturing Index was 18.7, the highest since November 2024, with an expected value of 5.8 and a previous value of 10.7; the employment index was 6.6 (previous value 6.2); the new orders index was 15.9 (previous value 3.7); the price acquisition index was 24 (previous value 27.2) [2]. - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December is 44.4%, and the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 55.6%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by a cumulative 25 basis points by January next year is 48.6%, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 34.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 16.7% [2]. 3.2 Price Logic - On Monday, precious metal prices continued to adjust. As the Fed's statements became more hawkish, the probability of a December interest rate cut further decreased. At the same time, the silver lease rate turned down, and the tension in the spot market eased. Gold and silver both maintained an adjustment pattern [1][3]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals remains. Debt over - issuance and de - globalization are the core drivers of the decline in the US dollar's credit. Gold is the preferred asset to hedge against the risk of the US dollar's credit, and silver benefits from the spill - over effect. In 2026, the global economy may shift from a soft landing to a mild recovery, which is conducive to the release of silver's long - term elasticity [3]. - The expected range for spot London gold this week is [3800, 4200] US dollars per ounce, and the expected range for spot London silver is [46, 53] US dollars per ounce [3]. 3.3 Commodity Index - Composite Index: No specific data provided. - Special Index: The commodity index was 2254.19, down 0.24%; the commodity 20 index was 2555.84, down 0.42%; the industrial products index was 2228.52, up 0.56% [41]. - Sector Index: The precious metals index on November 17, 2025, was 3309.51, with a daily decline of 2.83%, a decline of 1.35% in the past 5 days, a decline of 2.51% in the past month, and an increase of 49.59% since the beginning of the year [43].