宏观金融类：文字早评2025-11-18-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, after a previous continuous rise, recent hot sectors have rotated rapidly, with technology growth remaining the market's main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is mainly to go long on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is in a context of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and overall it will maintain a volatile trend. The bond market is expected to recover with oscillations [6]. - For precious metals, the Fed's asset - liability expansion is in the early "information transmission" stage, and there is still much room for interest rate cuts. It is recommended to wait for the price of gold and silver to pull back and stabilize before going long on silver [9]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different outlooks. For example, copper has strong price support, aluminum may strengthen after inventory reduction, zinc is expected to be weak in the short - term, etc. [12][14][17]. - For black building materials, steel prices are likely to continue weak oscillations in the short - term but may have a marginal inflection point later. Iron ore prices will operate within an oscillatory range in the short - term [31][33]. - For energy chemicals, different products have different strategies. For example, rubber is recommended for short - term long trading, and oil is recommended for a low - buy and high - sell range strategy [53][55]. - For agricultural products, different products also have different strategies. For example, for live pigs, it is recommended to do reverse arbitrage first and then short after a rebound; for eggs, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [78][80]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Category Stock Index - Market Information: From January to October, the national general public budget revenue was 18.6 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. Fusion New Energy released a nuclear fusion procurement project with a cumulative amount of over 20 billion yuan. Zhongxing International received a large number of urgent orders, and the storage industry supply has a gap. Haixia Innovation's stock price had abnormal fluctuations and will be suspended for verification [2]. - Strategy View: After the previous continuous rise, hot sectors rotate rapidly, and technology growth is the main line. Policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the medium - to - long - term strategy is to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - Market Information: On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. From January to October, the national general public budget revenue was 1864.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%. The 10 - year Japanese government bond yield reached 1.72%. The central bank conducted a net injection of 16.31 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy View: In the fourth quarter, the supply - demand pattern of the bond market may improve. The market is in a context of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations, and overall it will maintain a volatile trend. The bond market is expected to recover with oscillations [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Shanghai gold rose 0.04%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.17%. COMEX gold and silver had corresponding prices. Fed officials' dovish statements strengthened the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut, supporting the prices of gold and silver in the short - term [7]. - Strategy View: The Fed's asset - liability expansion is in the early "information transmission" stage, and there is still much room for interest rate cuts. It is recommended to wait for the price of gold and silver to pull back and stabilize before going long on silver [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category Copper - Market Information: Overnight, the US stock market fell, and copper prices oscillated and pulled back. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased. The domestic copper spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference narrowed [11]. - Strategy View: The US government reopened, but there are geopolitical headwinds. The copper raw material supply is tight, and the copper price has strong support. The reference operating range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 85,800 - 87,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 10,650 - 10,900 US dollars/ton [12]. Aluminum - Market Information: The large increase in domestic aluminum ingot inventory dragged down the aluminum price. The LME aluminum and Shanghai aluminum main contracts fell. The domestic aluminum ingot and aluminum rod social inventories increased, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased [13]. - Strategy View: Domestic aluminum ingot inventory is fluctuating, and overseas inventory is low. The aluminum price has strong support. If domestic inventory can be effectively reduced, the aluminum price may strengthen after oscillations. The reference operating range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 21,550 - 21,800 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,780 - 2,850 US dollars/ton [14]. Zinc - Market Information: The Shanghai zinc index rose 0.15%. The LME zinc 3S fell. The domestic social inventory of zinc ingots decreased slightly. The zinc ore inventory increased slightly, but the zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, and the zinc smelting profit was damaged [15][17]. - Strategy View: The zinc ore is still in short supply during the refineries' winter stockpiling period. The supply of zinc ingots has decreased marginally, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots has slowed down in terms of accumulation. The LME market's zinc ingot warehouse receipts are slowly increasing. The zinc price is expected to be weak in the short - term [17]. Lead - Market Information: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.88%. The LME lead 3S fell. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly. The lead ore inventory increased slightly, but the lead concentrate TC continued to decline, and the waste battery inventory increased slightly [18]. - Strategy View: The domestic lead raw material is still in short supply. The primary and secondary smelting profits are good, and the downstream battery enterprise's operating rate has improved marginally. The domestic social inventory of lead ingots has increased marginally. The lead price is in a weak oscillatory state [18]. Nickel - Market Information: The nickel price maintained a weak performance. The spot market's premium was stable. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price accelerated its decline [19]. - Strategy View: The decline in the nickel price is due to fundamental pressure. The refined nickel inventory has been increasing since October, and the nickel iron price has been falling since November. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. If the nickel iron price stabilizes and the nickel price drops sufficiently, consider going long. The reference operating range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 120,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 14,500 - 15,000 US dollars/ton [19]. Tin - Market Information: The Shanghai tin main contract fell 0.37%. The upstream tin concentrate price fell. The supply of tin ore is still tight, and the demand in emerging fields provides support for the tin price [20]. - Strategy View: The short - term tin supply and demand are in a tight balance, and the price is expected to be strong with oscillations. It is recommended to go long on dips. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract is 285,000 - 300,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 37,000 - 39,000 US dollars/ton [21]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: The five - mine steel union's carbonate lithium spot index rose 4.16%. The LC2601 contract rose 8.97% [22]. - Strategy View: Consumption continues to be boosted, and the supply and demand of products are tight. The contract increased its positions significantly on Monday, and the long - short game is intense. It is recommended to pay attention to the production scheduling of lithium - battery materials and cells, the change of the main positions, and the atmosphere of the equity market. The reference operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's carbonate lithium 2601 contract is 93,200 - 98,300 yuan/ton [22]. Alumina - Market Information: The alumina index fell 0.18%. The overseas Australian FOB price was stable, and the import was at a loss. The futures inventory was unchanged, and the ore price fell [23]. - Strategy View: The overseas ore shipment will gradually recover after the rainy season, and the ore price is expected to oscillate downward. The alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply pattern, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [24]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: The stainless steel main contract rose 0.28%. The spot price was stable, and the raw material price was stable. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [25]. - Strategy View: The market supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, market confidence is weak, and the demand is weak. The cost support is insufficient, and the stainless steel price is expected to continue to decline [26]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: The casting aluminum alloy price continued to pull back. The weighted contract's position decreased, and the warehouse receipt increased. The domestic mainstream area's ADC12 price decreased, and the inventory increased [27]. - Strategy View: The cost of casting aluminum alloy has support, and the demand is average. It is expected that the price will follow the aluminum price trend in the short - term [28]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category Steel - Market Information: The rebar and hot - rolled coil main contracts rose. The spot price increased. The rebar's registered warehouse receipt decreased, and the hot - rolled coil's increased [30]. - Strategy View: The short - term price increase is mainly due to short - covering by bears. The steel demand has entered the off - season, and the hot - rolled coil inventory pressure remains. The price is likely to continue weak oscillations in the short - term but may have a marginal inflection point later [31]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The iron ore main contract rose 2.07%. The spot price was 792 yuan/wet ton. The Ximangduo iron ore project was put into production, but the output increase this year is limited [32]. - Strategy View: The overseas iron ore shipment has rebounded, and the iron ore demand has been supported marginally. The high inventory suppresses the price. The iron ore price will operate within an oscillatory range in the short - term [33]. Glass and Soda Ash - Market Information: The glass main contract fell 0.29%, and the soda ash main contract rose 0.41%. The glass enterprise's inventory increased, and the soda ash enterprise's inventory decreased [34][36]. - Strategy View: The glass supply contraction is limited, and the demand is weak. The soda ash supply is high, and the demand is average. The glass price is expected to be weak in the short - term, and the soda ash price will continue to oscillate at a low level [35][37]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: On November 17, the black - sector varieties rebounded, and the position decreased. The manganese silicon main contract rose 0.77%, and the ferrosilicon main contract rose 1.38% [38]. - Strategy View: The black - sector's decline in the previous period has released market bearish sentiment. As the time approaches December, the macro - expectation is positive. It is recommended to pay attention to the market sentiment inflection point and the corresponding price inflection point. For manganese silicon, pay attention to the manganese ore situation; for ferrosilicon, the operability is low [40][41]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Market Information: The industrial silicon main contract rose 0.67%, and the polysilicon main contract fell 2.57%. The industrial silicon supply is expected to decrease, and the polysilicon production is expected to decrease [42][45]. - Strategy View: The industrial silicon supply and demand may be in a "double - weak" situation, and the price is expected to be weak with oscillations. The polysilicon supply - demand pattern may improve marginally, but the short - term de - stocking amplitude is limited. The price will continue to oscillate widely [44][46]. 3.4 Energy Chemicals Category Rubber - Market Information: The rubber price oscillated and rebounded. The typhoon affected the rainfall in the Thai production area. The Shanghai Exchange's natural rubber November warehouse receipt is about to expire. The tire factory's operating rate is neutral, and the inventory has increased slightly [48][50][51]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to take a long - biased short - term trading strategy and enter and exit quickly. It is recommended to partially build a position for the RU2601 long and RU2609 short hedge [53]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The INE main crude - oil futures rose 0.59%. The Chinese crude - oil inventory decreased. The gasoline, diesel, and total refined - oil inventories decreased [54]. - Strategy View: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, OPEC's supply has not increased significantly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and adopt a low - buy and high - sell range strategy [55]. Methanol - Market Information: The methanol price in Taicang decreased, and the 01 contract decreased. The port inventory is high, and the overseas start - up rate is high [56]. - Strategy View: The port high inventory suppresses the price. The supply pressure remains, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [56]. Urea - Market Information: The Shandong urea spot price was stable, and the 01 contract rose. The market was affected by news, and the inventory decreased [57]. - Strategy View: The domestic demand lacks support, and the supply is high. The new export policy has improved the market atmosphere, and the urea price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The cost of pure benzene was stable, and the styrene price rose. The supply increased, and the demand increased slightly [58]. - Strategy View: The pure benzene spot price was stable, and the futures price rose. The styrene price may stop falling temporarily [59]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC01 contract fell, and the spot price decreased. The cost was stable, the supply was high, and the demand was weak [60]. - Strategy View: The domestic supply is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies in the medium - term [62]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG01 contract rose, and the supply and demand were both high. The port inventory increased [64]. - Strategy View: The supply is high, and the port inventory will continue to accumulate in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to short on rallies [65]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA01 contract fell, and the supply and demand were both high. The inventory increased, and the processing fee decreased [66]. - Strategy View: The supply may increase in November, and the demand is difficult to boost. Pay attention to the opportunity of PXN increase driving PTA to strengthen in the medium - term [67][68]. p - Xylene - Market Information: The PX01 contract fell, and the load decreased. The PTA load decreased, and the inventory increased [69]. - Strategy View: The PX load is high, and the PTA inventory is difficult to de - stock. It is expected to accumulate a small amount of inventory in November. Pay attention to the opportunity of valuation increase in the medium - term [70]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The PE main contract price decreased, and the spot price was stable. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory decreased [71]. - Strategy View: The PE valuation has limited downward space, and the price is expected to maintain low - level oscillations [72]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The PP main contract price decreased, and the spot price was stable. The upstream start - up rate increased, and the inventory increased [73]. - Strategy View: The supply pressure is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is high. The price may be supported in the first quarter of next year [75]. 3.5 Agricultural Products Category Live Pigs - Market Information: The domestic pig price was half - stable and half - falling. The breeding side was reluctant to sell, and the downstream stocking enthusiasm increased [77]. - Strategy View: The supply is excessive before the Spring Festival, and the future direction of the futures is to short on rallies. It is recommended to do reverse arbitrage first and then short after a rebound [78]. Eggs - Market Information: The national egg price was mostly stable with minor fluctuations