宁证期货今日早评-20251118

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The coking profit has declined again due to rising costs, and the overall supply has continued to decline. The supply - demand structure of coke is healthy, but there is no expectation of price increase in the future, and the price is expected to fluctuate [1]. - There is a large divergence within the Fed on whether to cut interest rates in December. The outlook for interest rate cuts is unclear, and precious metals are in a volatile state. Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [2]. - The supply - demand pressure of steel has been relieved, and the cost remains high. In the short term, steel prices may fluctuate strongly, but the upside is restricted by the off - season demand, and in the medium term, they may fluctuate around the cost [4]. - The cost of ferrosilicon has increased, but the market supply - demand relationship is loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level around the cost [5]. - The tightness of the money market is negative for the short - term bond market, while central bank operations are positive. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards in the medium term [5]. - There may be pressure on the US employment market, and the decision of the Fed lacks data support. Silver is under short - term pressure but is still bullish in the medium term [6]. - The supply of live pigs is abundant, the terminal demand is weak, and the LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short term [6]. - The price increase space of palm oil is limited due to over - production and weak demand. The domestic inventory has increased significantly, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [7][8]. - Domestic soybeans show a regional differentiation trend. In the short term, the price of soybean No.1 may oscillate strongly at a high level [8]. - The production of PVC is expected to remain high, the demand is weak, the export expectation is affected, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9]. - The domestic soda ash market is firm, the downstream demand is stable, and the soda ash 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. - The supply pressure of ethylene glycol has been relieved, but there is still new production capacity pressure. The downstream polyester demand is stable, and the terminal weaving starts to decline. The ethylene glycol 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. - The geopolitical issue in the crude oil market has eased, and the price has declined slightly. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the price should be treated with a weak - oscillation view [12]. - The supply - demand of PTA has improved, and the processing fee has been repaired. The PX blending demand and the relatively good supply - demand structure support the PTA price in the short term [13]. - The raw material price of natural rubber may remain high, the terminal demand is insufficient, and the inventory is in a seasonal accumulation state. The price is expected to transition weakly [14]. Summary by Variety Coke - The average national ton - coke profit is - 34 yuan/ton. The supply has declined due to cost and environmental protection, and the demand is mixed. The inventory is in a de - stocking state. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. Gold - The Fed is divided on interest rate cuts in December. Gold is under pressure and may oscillate at a high level in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the impact of the US dollar index [2]. Rebar - On November 17, the domestic steel market rose. The supply - demand pressure has been relieved, and the cost remains high. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term and fluctuate around the cost in the medium term [4]. Ferrosilicon - The开工 rate is 34.84%, and the daily output has decreased. The cost has increased, but the supply - demand relationship is loose, and the price is expected to operate at a low level [5]. Short - term Treasury Bonds - Shibor short - end varieties have risen. The money market is tight, but central bank operations are positive. The bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards in the medium term, and attention should be paid to the stock - bond seesaw [5]. Silver - There may be pressure on the US employment market, and the Fed's decision lacks data support. Silver is under short - term pressure but is still bullish in the medium term. Attention should be paid to the differentiation between gold and silver [6]. Live Pigs - On November 17, the pork price decreased by 0.4%. The supply is abundant, the demand is weak, and the LH2601 contract still has downward pressure in the short term [6]. Palm Oil - As of November 14, the domestic inventory has increased significantly. The price increase space is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term [7][8]. Soybeans - In the 46th week of 2025, the inventory has decreased. Domestic soybeans show a regional differentiation trend, and the price of soybean No.1 may oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term [8]. PVC - The price of SG - 5 type PVC has decreased, the production capacity utilization rate has declined, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The production is expected to remain high, and the price is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [9]. Soda Ash - The price of heavy - quality soda ash has increased slightly, the production has decreased, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The market is firm, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [10]. Ethylene Glycol - The price has decreased, the production has increased slightly, and the port inventory has increased. The supply pressure has been relieved, and the 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term [11]. Crude Oil - India has signed a procurement agreement, and the Russian export hub has resumed loading. Geopolitical issues have eased, and the price has declined slightly. The market is in a state of oversupply, and the price should be treated with a weak - oscillation view [12]. PTA - The cost has increased, and the profit and processing fee have improved. The supply - demand has improved, and the price is supported in the short term [13]. Rubber - The raw material price has decreased, and the inventory in Qingdao has increased. The raw material price may remain high, the demand is insufficient, and the price is expected to transition weakly [14].