光大证券晨会速递-20251118

Group 1: Macroeconomic Insights - In October, general public budget expenditure turned negative year-on-year, with spending related to "three guarantees" and infrastructure investment showing a decline compared to the previous month, necessitating attention to the effectiveness of incremental fiscal policies since September [2] - Government fund revenues and expenditures are both slowing down, with expectations for improvement once local government debt limits are set and utilized to supplement overall financial capacity [2] - The supply of government bonds for the year is nearing its end, while an increase in fiscal deposits year-on-year in October indicates that there is still room for fiscal funds to be released, which is favorable for future liquidity [2] Group 2: High-end Manufacturing Industry - The controlled nuclear fusion industry is projected to have long-term growth potential, with a recent procurement project exceeding 2 billion yuan, covering areas such as power systems, low-temperature systems, and shielding layers [3] - Key companies to watch in the vacuum chamber and internal components segment include: Hezhong Intelligent, Guoguang Electric, Antai Technology, Yingliu Co., Parker New Materials, and Tiangong International [3] - In the magnet system segment, notable companies include Lianchuang Optoelectronics and Yongding Co., while in the power system segment, focus on Sichuan Chuang Electronics, Wangzi New Materials, and Xuguang Electronics [3] Group 3: Non-ferrous Metals Industry - Supply growth for steel, copper, and aluminum remains constrained, with gold benefiting from the US interest rate cut cycle and central bank purchases [4] - Recommended stocks for steel include Baosteel Co. and Jiuli Special Materials, with attention to companies like Ordos, CITIC Special Steel, and Hualing Steel [4] - For copper, recommended stocks are Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum, with a focus on Tongling Nonferrous Metals and Western Mining [4] Group 4: Real Estate Market - As of November 16, 2025, new home transactions in 20 cities totaled 674,000 units, a decrease of 10.6% year-on-year, with significant declines in cities like Beijing (-16%) and Shenzhen (-25%) [5] - In the second-hand housing market, transactions in 10 cities reached 667,000 units, an increase of 4.5% year-on-year, with notable growth in Shenzhen (+15%) and Shanghai (+11%) [5] Group 5: Company Research - Electronics - The company is expected to see performance improvement driven by its cellular baseband business, with mobile SoC and ASIC products supporting future growth [6] - Profitability recovery in the IoT business is slower than expected, leading to a downward revision of net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 [6] - The company maintains a "buy" rating due to the potential for growth in its mobile SoC product matrix and the high growth of its ASIC business benefiting from the trend of AI localization [6]