投资者静待美国经济数据，基本金属震荡整理

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to - medium term, supply disruptions continue to support base metal prices, but repeated macro - expectations and average demand limit the upside potential of prices. Base metals are expected to experience a pull - back after a rally and then enter a period of sideways consolidation. Opportunities for low - buying and long - holding of copper, aluminum, and tin can be continuously monitored. In the long term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruptions in copper, aluminum, and tin remain, so the supply - demand situation is expected to tighten, and the prices of copper, aluminum, and tin are favored [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Outlook - Copper: With the reopening of the US government, copper prices are consolidating at high levels. The supply constraints of copper remain, and supply disruptions are increasing. Considering the warming of macro - sentiment, copper prices are expected to show a sideways - up trend [7][8]. - Alumina: The inventory accumulation rate remains relatively fast, and alumina prices are expected to maintain a sideways movement. The current supply - demand situation is in surplus, but the valuation has entered a low - level range, so the price is expected to remain volatile [9][13]. - Aluminum: Inventory continues to accumulate, and aluminum prices have corrected. In the short term, positive macro factors combined with a stable fundamental situation are expected to keep aluminum prices in a sideways - up trend. In the medium term, the supply increment is limited, and demand maintains resilience, so the price center of aluminum is expected to continue to rise [14][15]. - Aluminum Alloy: Attention should be paid to demand changes, and the futures price is oscillating at high levels. In the short and medium terms, strong cost support combined with stable supply - demand or potential supply disruptions due to policies are expected to keep the price in a sideways - up trend [16][18]. - Zinc: The export window has opened, and zinc prices are oscillating at high levels. In the short term, zinc prices may show high - level oscillations. In the medium to long term, zinc supply is expected to increase, while demand growth is limited, so zinc prices may still have room to decline [19]. - Lead: Due to delivery, social inventory has increased, and lead prices have declined in the short term. Considering factors such as supply disturbances, demand at the end of the peak season, and cost support, lead prices are expected to show a sideways - up trend [20][22]. - Nickel: The current supply - demand situation is loose, and nickel prices are oscillating weakly. The market sentiment still dominates the price, and the fundamental situation of the industry is weakening at the margin. It is recommended to adopt a short - term trading strategy and continue to monitor changes in LME nickel inventory and RKAB quotas [22][23]. - Stainless Steel: Nickel iron prices continue to decline, and the stainless - steel futures price is oscillating. During the seasonal off - season, the fundamental situation exerts a certain downward pressure on prices, while cost support provides some upward impetus. Future focus should be on inventory changes and cost fluctuations [24][25]. - Tin: Shanghai tin inventory has started to accumulate, and tin prices are oscillating and adjusting. Supply disruptions continue, and demand is expected to grow. The supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, which will push up the price center of tin. Tin prices are expected to show a sideways - up trend [25][26]. 3.2 Market Monitoring No specific content for analysis and summary is provided. 3.3 Commodity Index - On November 17, 2025, the comprehensive index, the commodity 20 index, and the industrial products index of CITIC Futures were 2254.19 (down 0.24%), 2555.84 (down 0.42%), and 2228.52 (up 0.56%) respectively. The non - ferrous metals index was 2477.82, with a daily decline of 0.38%, a 5 - day decline of 0.29%, a 1 - month increase of 1.33%, and a year - to - date increase of 7.34% [150][152].