白糖：关注新糖成交放量情况

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report focuses on the fundamentals of the sugar market, including price data, macro and industry news, and production and consumption forecasts. It suggests paying attention to the new sugar trading volume and policy changes in China's syrup and premix imports [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Price Data: The raw sugar price is 14.75 cents/pound, down 0.1; the mainstream spot price is 5650 yuan/ton, down 110; the futures main price is 5458 yuan/ton, down 12 [1]. - Spread Data: The 15 spread is 60 yuan/ton, down 6; the 59 spread is 0 yuan/ton, down 4; the mainstream spot basis is 192 yuan/ton, down 98 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Policy: Pay attention to China's syrup and premix import policy changes [1]. - Production: The 25/26 sugar season's Indian sugar export quota is 1.5 million tons; Brazil's sugar production in the first half of October increased by 1% year - on - year; China imported 550,000 tons of sugar in September, an increase of 150,000 tons [1]. - Export: Brazil exported 4.2 million tons in October, a 13% year - on - year increase [1]. 3.3 Domestic Market - 25/26 Forecast: CAOC expects domestic sugar production to be 11.7 million tons, consumption to be 15.7 million tons, and imports to be 5 million tons [2]. - 24/25 Statistics: As of the end of September, the national sugar production was 11.16 million tons, an increase of 1.2 million tons; the cumulative sales were 10.48 million tons, an increase of 870,000 tons; the cumulative sales rate was 93.9%, a decrease of 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative imports were 4.63 million tons, a decrease of 120,000 tons [2]. - Regional Forecast: In the 25/26 sugar season, the Guangxi Sugar Association expects Guangxi's sugar production to be about 6.7 million tons, with a lower sugar yield and unchanged sugarcane purchase price; the Yunnan Sugar Association expects Yunnan's production to be about 2.6 million tons [2]. 3.4 International Market - Supply Forecast: ISO forecasts a global sugar supply shortage of 230,000 tons in the 25/26 sugar season and 4.88 million tons in the 24/25 sugar season [3]. - Brazil Data: As of November 1, the cumulative cane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil in the 25/26 sugar season decreased by 1.97 percentage points year - on - year, and the cumulative sugar production was 38.09 million tons, an increase of 610,000 tons [3]. - India Forecast: ISMA/NFCSF expects India's total sugar production in the 25/26 sugar season to be 34.35 million tons, with 3.4 million tons used for ethanol production and a net sugar production of 30.95 million tons [3]. - Thailand Data: Thailand's cumulative sugar production in the 24/25 sugar season was 10.08 million tons, an increase of 1.27 million tons [3]. 3.5 Trend Intensity The sugar trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [4]