山金期货黑色板块日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the thread steel and hot-rolled coil sector, the supply-demand situation shows that the apparent demand for thread steel decreased last week, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot-rolled coil inventory also decreased but remained significantly higher than historical levels. As steel mill profit margins have dropped sharply and the peak consumption period has passed, mill production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale, potentially triggering a negative feedback loop. Recently, coking coal and coke prices have weakened, and iron ore prices have fallen from their highs, reducing cost support for steel. Technically, on the daily K-line chart, both thread steel and hot-rolled coil have risen rapidly in the short term, facing resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and while prices may stabilize, the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - Regarding the iron ore sector, last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to follow the seasonal trend and decline, putting pressure on raw material prices. On the supply side, global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment. Technically, the futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Thread Steel and Hot-Rolled Coil - Supply and Demand: Thread steel's apparent demand, production, and inventory decreased last week. Hot-rolled coil inventory decreased but was still above historical levels. Steel mill profit margins dropped, and production cuts may exceed the normal seasonal scale [2]. - Technical Analysis: On the daily K-line chart, short-term rapid price increases face resistance from the 60-day moving average and the upper Bollinger Band. The Bollinger Band opening is narrowing, and the medium-term downward trend remains unchanged [2]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, avoid chasing up or selling down. Wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [2]. - Data: Includes various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, production, inventory, and demand data [3]. 3.2 Iron Ore - Demand: Last week, the sample steel mill's molten iron production increased slightly, but the output of the five major steel products continued to decline. With the arrival of the consumption off-season, molten iron production is expected to decline, putting pressure on raw material prices [5]. - Supply: Global shipments have decreased from their peak, and port inventories are rising, suppressing futures prices. Slow inventory reduction in the steel market also dampens overall market sentiment [5]. - Technical Analysis: The futures price of the 01 contract has broken through the middle Bollinger Band but faces resistance from a dense trading area and continues to trade in a relatively high range [5]. - Operation Suggestion: Maintain a wait-and-see approach, wait patiently for price corrections before entering long positions for medium-term trading [5]. - Data: Covers various prices (futures, spot, etc.), basis and spreads, shipment volumes, freight rates, exchange rates, arrival and departure volumes, and inventory data [5]. 3.3 Industry News - From November 10 - 16, 2025, China's 47-port iron ore arrivals totaled 2369.9 million tons, a decrease of 399.4 million tons from the previous period; 45-port arrivals totaled 2268.9 million tons, a decrease of 472.3 million tons; and northern six-port arrivals totaled 1041.3 million tons, a decrease of 484.5 million tons [7]. - From November 10 - 16, 2025, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3516.4 million tons, an increase of 447.4 million tons from the previous period. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2908.7 million tons, an increase of 360.1 million tons [8]. - A coal mine in Lvliang Zhongyang area resumed production on November 16 after a 63-day shutdown. It has a production capacity of 1.2 million tons and mainly produces low-sulfur coking coal. It is currently in the commissioning phase and is expected to resume production this week [8]. - Last week, the coking coal online auction failure rate increased. The total listed volume was 1.445 million tons, the成交 volume was 1.039 million tons, and the failure rate was 28.1%, an increase of 16.5 percentage points from the previous period. Auction prices mostly rose, and the daily price fluctuation range increased significantly [8]. - Coking enterprise operating rates continued to decline. The actual production in this period was 3.1782 million tons, a decrease of 0.0015 million tons from the previous period; the capacity utilization rate decreased, and the operating rate was 67.49%, a decrease of 0.03% from the previous period; inventory decreased to 0.3465 million tons, a decrease of 0.001 million tons from the previous period [8]. - The UK is formulating countermeasures as Prime Minister Starmer fails to reach an agreement to mitigate the impact of the EU's proposed steel tariff increase. The EU plans to cut the existing foreign steel tariff-free quota by nearly half and double the tariff on excess quotas to 50% [9].