HTSC·2025-11-18 01:59Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the airline transportation industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The improvement in industry conditions is expected to lead to an increase in ticket prices, supported by higher passenger load factors and operational efficiency [7][8] - The three major airlines (Air China, China Eastern Airlines, and China Southern Airlines) have shown strong performance in passenger load factors, reaching historical highs for domestic routes [5] - The overall industry supply growth is projected to slow down, which may further support price increases in the future [7] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The airline industry is experiencing a recovery, with a notable increase in passenger load factors and operational metrics [5][8] - The average aircraft utilization rate has improved, contributing to a more favorable supply-demand balance [7] Company Recommendations - Spring Airlines (601021 CH): Target price of 75.50, rated "Buy" due to its leading position in the low-cost segment and expected revenue growth [4][26] - China National Aviation (753 HK): Target price of 7.90, rated "Buy" as it is expected to benefit from improved industry conditions and operational efficiencies [4][26] - China Southern Airlines (600029 CH): Target price of 8.70, rated "Buy" based on anticipated revenue recovery and cost management [4][26] - China Eastern Airlines (600115 CH): Target price of 6.35, rated "Buy" due to strong passenger load factors and cost reduction expectations [4][26] - Juneyao Airlines (603885 CH): Target price of 16.20, rated "Buy" as it is expected to recover from operational challenges and benefit from improved pricing [4][26] Performance Metrics - In October 2025, the three major airlines reported a 6.2% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) and an 86.9% passenger load factor, reflecting strong demand recovery [5][10] - Spring Airlines achieved a 93.2% passenger load factor, with significant growth in both domestic and international routes [6][10] - The overall industry is expected to see a continued upward trend in ticket prices, supported by improved load factors and operational efficiencies [8][10]