镍与不锈钢日评：考验支撑有效性-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Nickel: On November 17, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated at a low level, with trading volume and open interest decreasing, and LME nickel prices falling 1.45%. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium narrowed. The nickel fundamentals are weak and there is inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that nickel prices will fluctuate at a low level and test the support around 115,000 [11]. - Stainless steel: On November 17, the main stainless - steel contract fluctuated within a range, with trading volume increasing and open interest increasing. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium narrowed. The fundamentals are loose, and cost support is weakening. It is expected that stainless - steel prices will fluctuate weakly [13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Market Price and Trading Volume - On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts decreased by 330 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 102,915 lots, a decrease of 15,806 lots, and the open interest of the active contract was 107,341 lots, a decrease of 4,908 lots [2]. - LME 3 - month nickel's spot official price, electronic - disk closing price, and on - floor closing price decreased, with trading volume decreasing by 6,785 lots [2]. Inventory - Shanghai nickel inventory was 35,027 tons, an increase of 799 tons. LME nickel registered warrants decreased by 243,738 tons, and the total inventory increased by 5,604 tons [2]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat, last week's nickel ore arrivals decreased, and import inventory decreased. Nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, domestic production in November decreased, and Indonesian production increased. Domestic electrolytic nickel production in November decreased, and electrolytic nickel import losses widened [11]. - Demand: Ternary material production increased, stainless - steel plant production decreased, and alloy and electroplating demand was stable [11]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate at a low level and test the support around 115,000 [11]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see [11]. Stainless - steel Market Price and Trading Volume - On November 17, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai stainless - steel futures' near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts showed different changes. The trading volume of the active contract was 137,113 lots, an increase of 17,461 lots, and the open interest was 172,728 lots, an increase of 4,992 lots [2]. Inventory - Shanghai stainless - steel inventory decreased, and last week's 300 - series social inventory was 623,200 tons, an increase of 17,900 tons [13]. Supply and Demand - Supply: Stainless - steel production in November decreased, and 300 - series production was basically flat [13]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [13]. Cost - High - grade pig iron prices and high - carbon ferrochrome prices decreased [13]. Market Outlook and Strategy - Outlook: Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [13]. - Strategy: It is recommended to hold short positions. If the current price fails to break through the previous low support effectively, take profit and wait and see [13]. Industry News - Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney announced the second batch of projects to be promoted by the National Major Projects Office, including the Sisson nickel project, the Matavanie Mountain project, and the Crawford project. The Crawford project has the world's second - largest nickel reserves and resources, with a total investment of 3.5 billion Canadian dollars and is expected to produce 3.5 billion pounds of nickel, 52.9 million pounds of copper, etc. over a 41 - year mining period [10].