国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The report presents the market trends and analysis of various commodities on November 18, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend and influencing factors [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Gold: The expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. The prices of domestic and international gold futures and spot have declined. The trend strength is neutral [2][5]. - Silver: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The prices of domestic and international silver futures and spot have also decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][5]. Base Metals - Copper: The rise of the US dollar has put pressure on prices. The prices of domestic and international copper futures have fallen. The trend strength is neutral [2][9]. - Zinc: It has shown a slight decline. The prices of domestic and international zinc futures have different trends. The trend strength is neutral [2][12]. - Lead: The significant increase in overseas inventories has put pressure on prices. The prices of domestic and international lead futures have decreased. The trend strength is slightly bearish [2][16]. - Tin: It has fallen from a high level. The prices of domestic and international tin futures have declined. The trend strength is slightly bearish [2][18]. - Aluminum: There is pressure above. The prices of domestic and international aluminum futures have decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][23]. - Alumina: It is in a range - bound shock. The price of domestic alumina futures has decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][23]. - Nickel: The nickel price has broken through the support level and is under pressure to fluctuate. The prices of domestic and international nickel futures have decreased. The trend strength is neutral [2][26]. - Stainless Steel: The weak reality suppresses the steel price, but there is limited downside. The price of domestic stainless - steel futures has increased slightly. The trend strength is neutral [2][26]. Energy and Chemicals - Carbonate Lithium: The market sentiment is positive, and it is relatively strong in the short term. The prices of domestic carbonate lithium futures have increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][32]. - Industrial Silicon: The warehouse receipts are being cleared, and there is strong support at the bottom. The price of domestic industrial silicon futures has increased slightly. The trend strength is neutral [2][36]. - Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to the market information from the meeting. The price of domestic polysilicon futures has decreased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][36]. - Iron Ore: It is fluctuating repeatedly. The price of domestic iron ore futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][39]. - Rebar: It has rebounded from the previous over - decline and is in a strong shock. The price of domestic rebar futures has increased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][42]. - Hot - Rolled Coil: It has rebounded from the previous over - decline and is in a strong shock. The price of domestic hot - rolled coil futures has increased. The trend strength is slightly bullish [2][42]. - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The main production areas continue to reduce production, and it is in a strong shock. The price of domestic silicon ferrosilicon futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][48]. - Manganese Silicide: Affected by the sector sentiment, it is in a strong shock. The price of domestic manganese silicide futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][49]. - Coke: It is in a wide - range shock. The price of domestic coke futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][53]. - Coking Coal: It is in a wide - range shock. The price of domestic coking coal futures has increased. The trend strength is neutral [2][53]. Others - Log: It is fluctuating repeatedly. The price of domestic log futures has remained stable. The trend strength is neutral [2][55]. - Rubber: It is fluctuating. The price trend of domestic rubber futures is not clear. The report does not provide specific trend strength information [2]. - Synthetic Rubber: There is support during the shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - Asphalt: The factory inventory has decreased slightly, and it is in a narrow - range shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - LLDPE: The agricultural demand may be approaching its peak, and attention should be paid to the supply pressure. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - PP: Do not chase short positions in the short term, and there is still pressure in the medium - term trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - Caustic Soda: There is still pressure in the trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - Pulp: It is fluctuating. The price trend of domestic pulp futures is not clear. The report does not provide specific trend strength information [2]. - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - Methanol: It is in a weak operation. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - Urea: There is support during the short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - Styrene: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - Soda Ash: There is little change in the spot market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - LPG: The downstream buying interest is strong, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - Propylene: The demand expectation has improved, and it is in a short - term strong shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - PVC: There is still pressure in the trend. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2]. - Fuel Oil: It maintains a weak shock and is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil in the short term. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: The night - session price has increased, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market has continued to widen. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Attention should be paid to the opening guidance. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Short - Fiber: The upstream fluctuation has increased, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Bottle Chip: The upstream fluctuation has increased, and it is in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Offset Printing Paper: It is in a low - level shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Pure Benzene: The overseas blending oil market has started, and it is mainly in a short - term shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Palm Oil: The short - term negative factors have been fully digested, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Soybean Oil: The US soybean price is stable, and soybean oil is in a strong shock. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Soybean Meal: The US soybean price is strong, and the domestic soybean meal may follow the rebound. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Soybean: It may follow the rebound of the soybean market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Corn: It is fluctuating. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Sugar: Attention should be paid to the trading volume of new sugar. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Cotton: The pressure of new cotton listing still suppresses the futures price. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Egg: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse - spread pattern. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Live Pig: The expectation of price increase due to cooling has failed, and the pressure is gradually being released. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4]. - Peanut: Attention should be paid to the spot market. The report does not provide detailed price and trend strength information [2][4].