国泰君安期货所长早读-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - General Public Budget: From January to October, the national general public budget revenue was 1.8649 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.8%, and the expenditure was 2.25825 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2%. Tax revenue increased by 1.7%, while non - tax revenue decreased by 3.1%. Central revenue decreased by 0.8%, and local revenue increased by 2.1%. Stamp duty increased by 29.5%, with securities trading stamp duty increasing by 88.1% [7]. - Sectors Recommended by the Director: - Caustic Soda: The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the market keeps shorting chlor - alkali profits. The demand from the alumina industry is hard to expand significantly, and non - aluminum downstream support is limited. The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by the alumina production cut expectation, and it's difficult to rebound significantly in the long run [8][9]. - Rapeseed Oil: The futures show a near - strong and far - weak structure. Before the end of the year, domestic rapeseed imports are limited, and the spot price and basis are firm. However, due to sufficient international rapeseed supply, it's not recommended to chase long in the near - month contracts, and short - allocation opportunities in the far - month contracts can be considered when imports are confirmed to increase [10]. - Commodity Futures: Different commodities have different trends, such as gold with rising interest - rate cut expectations, copper with prices pressured by the rising dollar, etc. [13] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Gold and Silver - Gold: The expectation of interest - rate cuts is rising. The prices of related contracts such as Shanghai Gold 2512 and Comex Gold 2512 have declined. Trading volume, positions, and inventory have also changed. The trend intensity is 0 [13][16]. - Silver: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The prices of related contracts have declined, and trading volume, positions, and inventory have changed. The trend intensity is 0 [13][16]. 3.2 Base Metals - Copper: The rising dollar pressures the price. The prices of Shanghai Copper and London Copper have declined, and there are changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and spreads. The trend intensity is 0 [13][20]. - Zinc: It shows a slight decline. There are changes in prices, trading volume, positions, spreads, and inventory. The trend intensity is 0 [13][23]. - Lead: Overseas inventory has increased significantly, and the price is under pressure. The prices of related contracts have declined, and there are changes in trading volume, positions, spreads, and inventory. The trend intensity is - 1 [13][26]. - Tin: It has fallen from a high level. The prices of related contracts have declined, and there are changes in trading volume, positions, inventory, and spreads. The trend intensity is - 1 [13][29]. - Aluminum: There is pressure above. Aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy have different price trends and data changes. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all 0 [13][33]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Nickel prices have broken through the lower limit and are under pressure to fluctuate. Stainless steel prices are suppressed by the weak reality, but the downside is limited. There are changes in prices, trading volume, positions, and related industry data. The trend intensities of nickel and stainless steel are both 0 [13][36][37]. 3.3 Other Commodities - Carbonate Lithium: Market sentiment is positive, and it is short - term strong. There are changes in contract prices, trading volume, positions, and basis. The trend intensity is 0 [13][42]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: Industrial silicon has strong bottom support due to the reduction of warehouse receipts. Polysilicon requires attention to market information from meetings. There are changes in prices, trading volume, positions, and related data. The trend intensity of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [13][46]. - Iron Ore: It fluctuates repeatedly. There are changes in futures prices, trading volume, positions, and spreads. The trend intensity is 0 [13][49]. - Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil: They have rebounded from previous oversold conditions and are in a strong - side shock. There are changes in prices, trading volume, positions, and spreads. The trend intensities of rebar and hot - rolled coil are both 1 [13][52][53]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: Ferrosilicon is in a strong - side shock due to continuous production cuts in the main production areas. Silicomanganese is affected by sector sentiment and is also in a strong - side shock. There are changes in futures and spot prices, trading volume, positions, and spreads. The trend intensities of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are both 0 [13][59]. - Coke and Coking Coal: They are in a wide - range shock. There are changes in prices, trading volume, positions, and spreads. The trend intensities of coke and coking coal are both 0 [13][63]. - Log: It fluctuates repeatedly [13][65].