Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has converged again, and the domestic risk appetite has weakened. The market needs to pay attention to the US non - farm payroll data and the earnings reports of the US stock technology sector this week. In the domestic market, although there is a possibility of reaching a new high this year, it is necessary to guard against the risk of a phased correction. The bond market is likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [2][3]. - Precious metals are in a phased adjustment, and it is necessary to continue to pay attention to the speeches of Fed officials and the US non - farm payroll data [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to fall from high levels in the short term due to increased sanctions on Russia and the Fed's hawkish attitude [6][7]. - Aluminum prices continue to adjust due to the decline in the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the increase in domestic aluminum ingot supply [8]. - Alumina is in a weak and volatile state as the supply pressure remains high [9][10]. - The decline of the casting aluminum price is expected to be limited as the cost provides support and there is replenishment demand in the future [11]. - Zinc prices are in a weak and volatile state as the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has cooled and the dollar index has rebounded [12]. - Lead prices are expected to adjust following the decline of LME lead, and it is necessary to pay attention to the support of the 40 - day moving average [13][14]. - Tin prices are expected to maintain a high - level adjustment as the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has declined and the fundamentals have limited driving force [15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation as the supply and demand contradiction is not significant [16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices may continue to rise, but it is necessary to be vigilant against the impact of demand falling short of expectations and increased imports [18][19]. - Nickel prices are expected to oscillate at a low level, and it is necessary to pay attention to the opportunity of going long at a low price [20][21]. - The prices of soda ash and glass are expected to oscillate at a low level as the demand has no bright spots [22][23]. - Steel prices are expected to oscillate as the supply pressure has decreased after the steel mills' production cuts, but the weak demand pattern remains unchanged [24]. - Iron ore prices are expected to oscillate as the supply pressure remains and the iron - making output has rebounded slightly [25]. - The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate weakly in the short term as the supply has increased marginally and the market sentiment has declined [26]. - The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to oscillate strongly in the short term as the external market has strengthened and the domestic inventory has reached an inflection point [27][29]. - Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate in the short term as the production has increased and the demand has decreased [30][31]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macroeconomic Situation - Overseas: The Fed has internal differences. Vice - Chairman Jefferson believes that the interest rate is approaching the neutral level and the subsequent interest rate cut needs to be cautious. The next Fed Chairman candidate Waller supports a 25 - bp interest rate cut in December. The market - priced probability of an interest rate cut in December has dropped to 43%. The US dollar index has rebounded to 99.5, the US stocks have risen and then fallen, and the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield has oscillated and fallen to 4.13%. Gold, copper, and oil prices have all adjusted [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market has oscillated and adjusted, and the trading volume of the two markets has fallen to 1.93 trillion. The margin trading balance has basically remained flat since November, indicating a weakening willingness to add leverage. The bond market is in a volatile period without a clear main line and is likely to maintain a relatively strong and volatile pattern in the short term [3]. Precious Metals - On Monday, international precious metal futures prices continued to fall. COMEX gold futures fell 1.20% to $4045.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.25% to $50.05 per ounce. The market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has been weakening, and precious metal prices have fallen for three consecutive days. In addition, the low physical demand in the Asian market and Indonesia's plan to impose an export tax on gold products have also affected the prices [4]. Copper - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai copper oscillated and fell, and LME copper adjusted to around $10,700 to seek support. The US has increased sanctions on Russia, and the Fed has different attitudes towards interest rate cuts, with the probability of an interest rate cut in December dropping to 57%. Fundamentally, the shortage of ore supply continues, and domestic refined copper production has declined. It is expected that copper prices will fall from high levels in the short term [6][7]. Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 21,725 yuan per ton, down 1.14%. The LME aluminum price also fell. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots and aluminum rods has increased. The Fed's recent statements have affected the decline of the interest rate cut expectation, and the domestic aluminum supply has increased. The previous positive factors have faded, and aluminum prices continue to adjust [8]. Alumina - On Monday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 2,817 yuan per ton, down 0.7%. The domestic and foreign spot prices of alumina have shown a trend of stabilizing after falling, and the market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply side is expected to cut production due to cost pressure and environmental protection policies, and alumina is in a weak and volatile state [9][10]. Casting Aluminum - On Monday, the main contract of casting aluminum alloy futures closed at 20,990 yuan per ton, down 1.11%. The cost of scrap aluminum provides support, and there is replenishment demand in the future. It is expected that the decline of casting aluminum prices will be limited [11]. Zinc - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc oscillated weakly. The supply of zinc in the market is still tight, and the inventory has decreased slightly. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has cooled, and the US dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on zinc prices. The zinc market has both positive and negative factors, and zinc prices are in a weak and volatile state [12]. Lead - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fell. The LME lead inventory has increased significantly, dragging down the price of LME lead, and Shanghai lead has also adjusted weakly. The production of primary lead smelters has recovered, while some secondary lead smelters have cut production. The consumption of electric bicycles has weakened, and the social inventory has increased slightly. It is expected that lead prices will follow the adjustment of LME lead [13][14]. Tin - On Monday, the main contract of Shanghai tin oscillated at a high level. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut in December has declined, and the market sentiment has tightened. The improvement of the raw material supply is limited, and the downstream is cautious about purchasing high - priced tin. The inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a high - level adjustment [15]. Industrial Silicon - On Monday, industrial silicon oscillated narrowly. The supply side has slightly converged, and the demand side has different situations in different sectors. The social inventory has decreased slightly, and the spot market has generally stabilized. It is expected that industrial silicon prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term [16][17]. Lithium Carbonate - On Monday, lithium carbonate prices rose strongly. The supply of lithium carbonate has reached a new high, but the inventory has decreased, and the destocking has accelerated. The market has a strong ability to absorb lithium carbonate. The bullish sentiment in the market is strong, which may push lithium carbonate prices higher, but attention should be paid to the impact of demand falling short of expectations and increased imports [18][19]. Nickel - On Monday, nickel prices oscillated weakly. The inventory of nickel at home and abroad has increased significantly, putting pressure on nickel prices. However, the current price has touched the cost line of some production capacities, and the downstream procurement is active. Indonesia has begun to control the nickel industry. It is expected that nickel prices will oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of going long at a low price [20][21]. Soda Ash and Glass - On Monday, the main contract of soda ash oscillated, and the glass price was also at a low - level oscillation. The demand for soda ash and glass has no bright spots. The inventory of soda ash has decreased significantly, but the glass market is still weak. It is expected that the prices of soda ash and glass will oscillate at a low level [22][23]. Steel - On Monday, steel futures oscillated and rebounded. The production of the five major steel products has decreased, and the inventory has declined, but the demand is still weak. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate [24]. Iron Ore - On Monday, iron ore futures oscillated and rebounded. The overseas arrival volume has decreased, but the shipping volume has increased, and the port inventory has continued to increase. The iron - making output has rebounded slightly. It is expected that iron ore prices will oscillate [25]. Coking Coal and Coke - On Monday, coking coal and coke futures oscillated weakly. The production of coking coal has rebounded from a low level, and the fourth - round price increase of coke has been implemented. The downstream steel mills' iron - making output has rebounded, but the demand for raw materials is expected to weaken. It is expected that the prices of coking coal and coke will oscillate weakly in the short term [26]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - On Monday, the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures fell, but the external market has strengthened. The US soybean crushing volume in October exceeded expectations, and the Brazilian soybean planting progress is normal. The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level but have reached an inflection point. It is expected that the prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal will oscillate strongly in the short term [28][29]. Palm Oil - On Monday, palm oil futures rose slightly. The production of Malaysian palm oil in the first half of November has increased, while the export demand has decreased. The domestic palm oil inventory has increased. It is expected that palm oil prices will oscillate in the short term [30][31].
铜冠金源期货商品日报-20251118
Tong Guan Jin Yuan Qi Huo·2025-11-18 02:27