Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Index futures are long - term bullish, recommended to buy on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - Black Building Materials: Coking coal and rebar are for range trading; Glass is recommended to sell call options [1][7][8]. - Non - ferrous Metals: Copper is for short - term range trading; Aluminum is recommended to buy on dips; Nickel is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies; Tin, gold, and silver are for range trading [1][10][11][18]. - Energy Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, methanol, and polyolefins are expected to trade sideways; Soda ash 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [1][20][22][25][31]. - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to trade sideways; PTA is in low - level oscillation; Apples are expected to be slightly bullish; Jujubes are expected to be slightly bearish [1][34][35]. - Agricultural and Livestock: Pigs' price rebounds are under pressure; Eggs' price increases are limited; Corn is in the process of bottom - building; Soybean meal is for range trading; Oils' price rebounds are limited [1][38][40][42]. Core Views - A - share market has hot - spot rotation, and the main line is unclear. Index futures may trade sideways. For Treasury bonds, the possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is relatively limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern [5]. - In the black building materials market, the coal market is weak, and steel prices may trade at low levels. Glass demand is weak, and it is recommended to hold short positions [7][8]. - Non - ferrous metals are affected by macro and fundamental factors. Copper is in high - level oscillation, aluminum is in high - level trading with uncertainty, nickel has an oversupply situation in the medium - long term, and tin and precious metals are in range trading [11][12][17][18]. - Energy chemicals generally face supply - demand imbalances, with most products expected to trade sideways or weakly. Soda ash may have limited downside space [20][22][25][33]. - In the cotton textile industry chain, cotton and cotton yarn are under pressure due to loose supply - demand, PTA is in low - level oscillation, apples may be strong due to reduced production and quality, and jujubes' prices are weakening [34][35][37]. - In the agricultural and livestock market, pigs' supply is large in the short - to - medium term, egg supply is sufficient, corn is in the bottom - building process, soybean meal is in range trading, and oils' price rebounds are limited [38][40][42][46][53]. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Index Futures: A - share market has个股涨跌互现, with hot - spot rotation. 1 - 10 national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year, and expenditure increased by 2%. Index futures may trade sideways in the short term and are long - term bullish [5]. - Treasury Bonds: The third - quarter monetary policy report maintains a prudent and loose tone. The possibility of using aggregate monetary policy tools this year is limited, and the market is in a range - trading pattern, waiting for policy signals from the December Central Economic Work Conference [5][6]. Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The coal market is in a downward trend, with weak demand and widespread price cuts. Market participants are waiting and seeing [7]. - Rebar: Futures prices are below cost, with low static valuation. Macro利好 has been realized, and demand may decline. Steel mills may increase production cuts. Short - term steel prices are expected to trade at low levels, with the 01 contract focusing on the range of 3000 - 3100 [7][8]. - Glass: The main contract's open interest hits a new high. Supply is stable, demand is weak, and inventory is high. It is recommended to hold short positions in the 01 contract and sell call options [8]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The market is in high - level oscillation, affected by US government policies, Fed policy expectations, and economic data in China. Fundamentally, raw material supply is tight, and consumption is average. Long - term demand is optimistic, but short - term risks exist. The main contract may trade in the range of 85000 - 88000 [10][11]. - Aluminum: Bauxite prices are stable, and alumina production capacity has decreased slightly. Aluminum production capacity is basically stable, and demand is affected by the off - season. Inventory has increased slightly. It is recommended to wait and see [12][13]. - Nickel: Indonesia's new RKAB policy brings uncertainty. Nickel supply is expected to be loose in the medium - long term, with an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see or short on rallies [17]. - Tin: Domestic production has increased, and imports have decreased. The semiconductor industry is recovering, and inventory is at a medium level. Supply is expected to improve, and demand is weak. It is recommended for range trading [18]. - Gold and Silver: Affected by US government policies and Fed policy expectations, prices are in range trading. There is support from interest - rate cut expectations and risk - aversion demand [18][19]. Energy Chemicals - PVC: Cost is under pressure, supply is high, demand is weak, and exports may slow down. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 4700 pressure level [20][21][22]. - Caustic Soda: Affected by alumina production and inventory, the price is under pressure. It is expected to trade weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2400 pressure level [22][23]. - Styrene: Cost and supply - demand factors lead to a weak outlook. It is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 pressure level [23][25]. - Rubber: Raw material prices are high, inventory is increasing, and demand is weak. It is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 15000 support level [25][26]. - Urea: Supply has increased, demand is diversified, and inventory is high. It is expected to trade in a wide range [27][28]. - Methanol: Supply has increased, demand has decreased, and inventory has accumulated. It is expected to trade weakly. Key factors to watch include macro changes, device maintenance, and coal prices [28]. - Polyolefins: Supply pressure is increasing, demand is weak, and costs are under pressure. PE is expected to trade in a range, focusing on the 6800 support level; PP is expected to trade weakly, focusing on the 6500 support level [29]. - Soda Ash: Supply is expected to contract, and demand is stable. The 01 contract short - sellers are advised to exit and wait [33]. Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: Global supply - demand is loose, and downstream consumption is weak. Prices are under pressure [34]. - PTA: Oil prices are weak, supply - demand is in a state of inventory accumulation, and prices are in low - level oscillation, focusing on the 4400 - 4700 range [34][35]. - Apples: Production and quality have decreased, and prices may remain strong [35]. - Jujubes: Acquisition prices are falling, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to decline [37]. Agricultural and Livestock - Pigs: Short - term prices are in a narrow range, and medium - long - term supply is large. It is recommended to hold short positions in 01, 03, and 05 contracts and pay attention to the 05 - 03 spread arbitrage [38][39][40]. - Eggs: Supply is sufficient, and price increases are limited. The 12 - contract is recommended to short on rallies, and the 01 contract is expected to trade in a range [40][41]. - Corn: Short - term prices are supported by reduced supply, and medium - long - term supply - demand is relatively loose. The 01 contract is recommended to short on rallies, and attention should be paid to the 3 - 5 spread arbitrage [44][45]. - Soybean Meal: The US soybean market is in a wide - range oscillation. Domestic supply may improve in December. The M2601 contract is for range trading, and spot enterprises can fix prices at low points [46][47]. - Oils: Short - term price rebounds are limited, and it is recommended not to chase the rise but to buy on dips. Attention should be paid to the rapeseed oil 1 - 5 spread and palm oil 1 - 5 spread arbitrage [47][53].
期货市场交易指引2025年11月18日-20251118
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-11-18 02:38