新能源及有色金属日报：社会库存超预期，重心下滑-20251118

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6] Group 2: Report's Core View - Zinc prices have declined, and there is restocking behavior in the spot market, but social inventories are increasing and are about to exceed the levels of the past five years. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement remains cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores continues to rise, leading to higher smelting profits and sustained smelting enthusiasm. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side continues to emerge. Even during the peak consumption season, the domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory accumulation is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are disappointed, zinc prices will face significant pressure and may show a relatively weak trend, but the impact of overseas inventories needs attention [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Important Data - Spot: LME zinc spot premium is $175.85/ton. SMM Shanghai zinc spot price is 22,400 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a premium of -10 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong zinc spot price is 22,360 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton; Tianjin zinc spot price is 22,360 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, with a premium of -50 yuan/ton [2] - Futures: On November 17, 2025, the SHFE zinc main contract opened at 22,460 yuan/ton, closed at 22,465 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 94,668 lots, and the open interest was 91,450 lots. The highest price was 22,495 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 22,385 yuan/ton [3] - Inventory: As of November 17, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 156,600 tons, down 1,300 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, LME zinc inventory was 39,975 tons, up 1,000 tons from the previous trading day [4] Market Analysis - Zinc prices have dropped, and there is restocking in the spot market, but social inventories are rising and approaching the five - year average. Spot liquidity has improved, but procurement is still cautious. The TC of domestic and imported ores is rising, smelting profits are increasing, and smelting enthusiasm remains high. The supply is expected to increase, and the pressure on the supply side is obvious. Even during the peak consumption season, domestic inventory accumulation is expected, and the current inventory build - up is accelerating. If the peak consumption season expectations are not met, zinc prices will face great pressure and may be relatively weak, but the impact of overseas inventories needs to be considered [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish; Arbitrage: Neutral [6]