尿素早评：价格底部或逐步明朗-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The bottom of the current urea price may gradually become clear. Although urea has rebounded recently, the strength is limited, and the valuation is still at a relatively low level, reflecting the current pattern of strong supply and weak demand. From a driving perspective, the new round of export quotas will relieve the supply pressure in the fourth quarter to a certain extent, and the winter reserve demand will support the price, and low prices may stimulate storage - enterprise entry. The low valuation of urea is the result of market consensus on the pressure of oversupply, but the price is supported at a low level. [1] - The trading strategy is to take profit on selling options and pay attention to long - buying opportunities on dips in the medium and long term. [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Price Changes - Futures Prices: UR01 rose from 1652.00 yuan/ton to 1662.00 yuan/ton, a 0.61% increase; UR05 rose from 1727.00 yuan/ton to 1737.00 yuan/ton, a 0.58% increase; UR09 rose from 1748.00 yuan/ton to 1755.00 yuan/ton, a 0.40% increase. [1] - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Grained): Prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, and Jiangsu decreased by - 0.63%, - 0.62%, - 1.23%, and - 0.63% respectively, while those in Shanxi and Northeast remained unchanged. [1] - Upstream Costs: The prices of anthracite coal in Henan and Shanxi remained unchanged. [1] - Downstream Prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong increased by 0.67%, while that in Henan remained unchanged. The price of melamine in Shandong remained unchanged, and that in Jiangsu increased by 0.97%. [1] 2. Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR decreased by 20.00 yuan/ton, and the spread of 01 - 05 remained unchanged. [1] 3. Important Information - The opening price of the main urea futures contract 2601 was 1650 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1667 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1641 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1662 yuan/ton, the settlement price was 1656 yuan/ton, and the position was 254752 lots. [1]