农产品日报：缺乏明显上涨驱动，板块整体承压运行-20251118

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][8][10] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The cotton market lacks obvious upward drivers, with international and domestic markets facing supply - demand imbalances. In the short - term, cotton prices are under pressure, while in the long - term, they are expected to be more optimistic. The sugar market is in a globally over - supplied situation, but short - term price declines are limited, and long - term trends are not optimistic. The pulp market has a supply - demand imbalance, with supply remaining loose and demand weak, limiting the rebound of pulp prices [2][7][9] Group 3: Summary by Different Commodities Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2601 contract yesterday was 13,445 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.04%. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,579 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 14,801 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. According to the USDA's November report, the 2025/26 US cotton planting area is 56.427 million mu, the harvest area is 44.729 million mu, with a constant abandonment rate of 20.7%. The expected yield per mu is 68.7 kg, up 6.7% from September, and the expected output is 3.073 million tons, an increase of 194,000 tons from September. The expected consumption is 370,000 tons, and the expected export volume is 2.654 million tons, an increase of 44,000 tons from September. The ending inventory increases by 152,000 tons to 936,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA's November report significantly increased the US cotton output, and the global cotton output, consumption, and ending inventory in the 2025/26 season all increased compared to September, with a bearish adjustment direction. The northern hemisphere's new cotton is concentrated on the market, and the global textile terminal consumption is weak. Domestically, the expected new cotton output has declined, and the seed cotton purchase price has stabilized and rebounded. However, new cotton is still expected to increase in production, the downstream "Golden September and Silver October" peak season is not prosperous, and it is currently the off - season for the textile industry, with insufficient demand [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, cotton prices face strong hedging pressure and may decline after cost solidification. In the long - term, the beginning inventory of the new year is low, consumption is resilient, and the supply - demand is not too loose. After the seasonal pressure, cotton prices can be viewed optimistically [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2601 contract yesterday was 5,458 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.22%. Spot: The sugar spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,630 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. In the second half of October, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 31.108 million tons, an increase of 3.902 million tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 14.34%. The sugar production was 2.068 million tons, an increase of 292,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 16.40%. From the beginning of the 2025/26 crushing season to the second half of October, the cumulative sugar production was 38.085 million tons, an increase of 611,000 tons compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year increase of 1.63% [4][5] Market Analysis - The global sugar market is in a pattern of over - supply, with Brazil's supply remaining strong, India's sugar production expected to rebound significantly, and Thailand's sugar production also expected to increase. However, in the short - term, India's exports are difficult to increase, and Brazil's supply pressure is gradually weakening. The domestic new crushing season has a strong expectation of increased sugar production, but the current price is close to the cost line, and the sugar mills have the intention to support the price, and the syrup control policy is tightened, so the decline space of Zhengzhou sugar is limited [6][7] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, the support around 5,400 is strong, and Zhengzhou sugar is expected to fluctuate before the Spring Festival. In the long - term, the domestic supply - demand is expected to be loose, and the price may not be optimistic next year, with the possibility of new lows [8] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2601 contract yesterday was 5,474 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.11%. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp (Ural and Baikal) was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market fluctuated slightly, with only a few pulp types showing a strengthening trend [9] Market Analysis - Supply: The European pulp port inventory in September decreased month - on - month but remained at a relatively high level. The domestic port inventory removal was slower than expected, and the supply remained loose. Demand: The pulp consumption in Europe and the United States was weak, and the global pulp mill inventory pressure was increasing. Domestic demand was weak, and although there was a large amount of finished paper production capacity put into operation this year, the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper mills' operating rate declined [9] Strategy - Neutral. The fundamental improvement of the pulp market is insufficient, and the continuous rebound space of pulp prices is limited. Attention should be paid to the actual implementation of the peak - season demand in the fourth quarter [10]