农产品日报：现货价格整体下调，豆粕偏弱震荡-20251118

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the bean meal and corn sectors is cautiously bearish [4][7] Report Core View - For the bean meal market, the current domestic supply is relatively abundant, with continuous soybean arrivals and high oil - mill inventories. Although the bean meal inventory decreased this week due to reduced crushing, it remains at a high level. The price was supported by rising US soybean prices and import costs last week. Future focus should be on soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes. - For the corn market, new corn from the Northeast and North China is concentrated on the market. The supply is slightly abundant, but the supply - demand imbalance persists. Feed enterprises are cautious in building inventories, while deep - processing enterprises are increasing prices to purchase. Attention should be paid to farmers' selling and traders' shipping [3][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Bean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean meal 2601 contract was 3043 yuan/ton yesterday, down 49 yuan/ton (-1.58%) from the previous day. The closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2449 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton (-1.65%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 3000 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2990 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [1] - Argentina's 2025/26 soybean planting area as of November 12 was 12.9% of the total expected area, up from 4.4% a week ago but 7.4% behind the same period last year and 3% behind the five - year average. The estimated planting area is 17.6 million hectares, a 4.3% year - on - year decrease. US private exporters reported selling 33.2 tons of soybeans to China for 2025/26 delivery [2] Market Analysis - The domestic supply is still relatively loose, with continuous soybean arrivals and high oil - mill inventories. The bean meal inventory decreased this week due to reduced crushing but remains high. The price was supported by rising US soybean prices and import costs last week. Future attention should be paid to soybean imports, South American soybean weather, and policy changes [3] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [4] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2601 contract was 2182 yuan/ton yesterday, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.14%) from the previous day. The closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2489 yuan/ton, down 16 yuan/ton (-0.64%) from the previous day. - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2550 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - As of November 5, Argentine farmers sold 3072 tons of 2024/25 corn, 72 tons more than a week ago, and pre - sold 546 tons of 2025/26 corn, 46 tons more than a week ago. The Argentine corn spot price on November 5 was 270,000 pesos/ton, up from 267,500 pesos/ton a week ago [4] Market Analysis - New corn from the Northeast and North China is concentrated on the market. Although the new - season Northeast corn has good yield and quality, port and production - area prices are rising. In North China, farmers are reluctant to sell, leading to tight supply and rising prices. Feed enterprises are reluctant to build inventories, while deep - processing enterprises are increasing prices to purchase. The supply is slightly abundant, and the supply - demand imbalance persists [6] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [7]