煤焦：盘面承压运行，关注需求变化

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoint of the Report - Short - term domestic coal mine production has a slight recovery, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has significantly rebounded; demand fluctuates slightly, and attention should be paid to the transmission of off - season pressure to the raw material end. The coking coal price is still running within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [3]. 3) Summary According to the Directory - Market Performance: Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices fluctuated, and there was a sharp decline at night. The decline of the near - month coking coal contract exceeded 3.5%, and it traded at a discount to the spot, with the weak delivery logic dragging down the near - month price. The coking coal spot market stabilized, and coke completed the fourth round of price increase [3]. - Fundamental Analysis - Supply Side: Last week, coal mine production in many parts of Shanxi recovered, and there is still an expectation of production increase in the short term. Although most coal mines have little inventory pressure, the raw coal inventory of coal mines has stopped falling and started to rise, and it will be a bit difficult for coal prices to rise later. The daily average output of clean coal was 75.7 tons, an increase of 1.9 tons compared with the previous week and a decrease of 3.3 tons year - on - year. In the import aspect, from November 10th to November 15th, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 17.45 tons, a decrease of 2.07 tons compared with the previous week, but still at a relatively high level overall, and the inventory in the port supervision area showed an increasing trend [3]. - Fundamental Analysis - Demand Side: The profit of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. Recently, the phased production restriction policy in the Tangshan area was lifted, which promoted the recovery of hot metal production. The daily average hot metal production last week recovered to 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons compared with the previous week. Later, attention should be paid to the profitability of steel mills and the changes in the production rhythm of steel mills [3].