隔夜美豆下跌，双粕减仓补跌

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex and diverse trend, with different varieties having different outlooks. Some are expected to be volatile, some are expected to rise, and some are expected to decline. For example, protein meal is expected to rise, while sugar is expected to be weak in the medium - long term [2][7][17]. - Multiple factors such as international supply and demand, domestic policies, weather conditions, and macro - economic situations affect the prices of agricultural products. For instance, the USDA report, South American weather, and domestic import policies all have an impact on the prices of soybeans and related products [2][6][7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Protein Meal - View: Overnight US soybeans fell, and double - meal reduced positions and made up for the decline. In the short term, it is expected that the futures and spot prices will rise; in the medium term, attention should be paid to the repair of crushing margins [2][7]. - Logic: Internationally, the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in December is low. The USDA report lowered US soybean production, exports, and ending stocks. US soybean premiums are lower than South American soybeans, and there is no cost - effectiveness. Domestically, the import profit of Chinese soybeans has been repaired, but the import and crushing of the January shipment are still at a loss, and the ship - buying progress is slow. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills is at a high level in the same period in recent years, and the soybean meal inventory of oil mills is seasonally decreasing but still higher than the same period last year [2][7]. - Outlook: US soybeans will fluctuate, and Dalian meal will fluctuate and rise. It is recommended to buy at around 3000 - 3050 and hold, without chasing high [3][7]. 3.2 Oils and Fats - View: It may fluctuate and consolidate in the near future, and attention should be paid to the production and demand of Malaysian palm oil [6][7]. - Logic: The market focuses on US economic data, and the Fed's internal differences in monetary policy have intensified. The USDA report is slightly bearish. South American soybean planting is progressing smoothly. Domestic soybean arrivals are expected to be at a high level, and the de - stocking speed of domestic soybean oil is expected to be slow. The production of Malaysian palm oil has decreased, and exports have declined. The consumption of palm oil in Indonesian biodiesel has increased, and the inventory has remained low. The supply of domestic rapeseed is tight, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has decreased [6]. - Outlook: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil will all fluctuate [6]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - View: It continues to fluctuate at a high level [7]. - Logic: On the supply side, due to the cold weather, farmers are reluctant to sell, and the selling rhythm has slowed down. Although the supply of corn in Jilin has increased, the selling pressure in the Northeast has not been fully realized. On the demand side, the demand for feed grains is concentrated in the Northeast, and the transportation capacity is tight. The wheel - storage of the State Grain Reserve continues, and the auction of imported corn has a high transaction rate [7][8]. - Outlook: It is expected to fluctuate strongly. In the short term, wait and see, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities when it rebounds to around 2200 [8][9]. 3.4 Pigs - View: The supply pressure continues, and the pig price runs weakly [9]. - Logic: In the short term, the planned daily slaughter volume of large - scale farms in November has increased slightly, but the slaughter progress in the first ten days of November is slow, which may lead to increased slaughter pressure at the end of the month. In the medium term, the number of live pigs to be slaughtered in the fourth quarter is expected to increase. In the long term, the production capacity of breeding sows has begun to decline [9]. - Outlook: It will fluctuate weakly. The near - term contracts are under high - production - capacity pressure, while the far - term contracts are supported by the expectation of production - capacity reduction. Pay attention to the reverse - arbitrage strategy [9][10]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - View: It is waiting for a driving force and fluctuating within a range [11][12]. - Logic: The macro - environment is changeable, and there is no obvious directional driving force in the fundamentals. Overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and raw material prices are firm, which supports the price to some extent. The demand has not changed significantly in the near two weeks [12]. - Outlook: It may maintain a bottom - fluctuating and highly elastic trend. In the short term, continue to pay attention to expanding the spread between RU and NR [12]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - View: The disk has temporarily entered a shock - consolidation stage [14][15]. - Logic: It follows the fluctuations of natural rubber and the raw material butadiene. The price of butadiene has fallen rapidly and then stabilized. The supply of butadiene is abundant, and the downstream buying sentiment is cautious. After the price of butadiene fell to a low point, some downstream enterprises made up for the inventory, and the market stopped falling and consolidated [15]. - Outlook: The fundamentals and raw material pressure are both large. Before the obvious supply - demand contradiction of butadiene appears, the disk is recommended to be shorted when the price is high [15]. 3.7 Cotton - View: There is a callback risk in the short term [16][17]. - Logic: The USDA November supply - demand forecast report is bearish, and the expected production of cotton in the United States, China, and Brazil has increased. Domestically, the actual purchase volume of seed cotton has exceeded expectations, and the expected production of new cotton in Xinjiang has increased. The previous bullish factors have been digested, and the supply is increasing while the demand is weakening [16]. - Outlook: In the short term, the 01 contract has a callback risk; in the long term, the valuation is low, and it will fluctuate strongly [17]. 3.8 Sugar - View: The rebound power is weak [17]. - Logic: In the medium - long term, the global sugar market is expected to have a surplus supply, and the sugar prices at home and abroad are under downward pressure. In the short term, the export volume of Brazil has decreased, and the domestic import policy is tightened, which provides some support for the domestic market [17]. - Outlook: In the medium - long term, it will fluctuate weakly. In the short term, the operating range of sugar prices is 5350 - 5550 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short when the price is high [17]. 3.9 Pulp - View: The futures fluctuate at a high level, and the long - dominant pattern remains unchanged [17][18]. - Logic: The bullish factors for the previous rise include the increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the import cost of broad - leaf pulp, the expected good production and sales of white cardboard and cultural paper, and the possible shortage of delivery warehouse receipts for the 01 contract. The bearish factors include the low total demand for softwood pulp, the slow procurement of downstream enterprises, the disturbance of the warehouse - receipt problem, and the lack of strong growth in downstream and terminal consumption [18]. - Outlook: It will fluctuate. The futures market is dominated by funds, and the main force is competing for the warehouse - receipt problem. The pulp futures will mainly fluctuate widely [18]. 3.10 Double - Glue Paper - View: Paper enterprises are supporting prices, and the spot price has stopped falling [19]. - Logic: In the short term, some paper enterprises still have the intention to support prices, but dealers' inventory is rational. The orders of downstream printing factories have not changed much, and the procurement of raw paper is mainly based on rigid demand. The upstream pulp price has increased slightly, which strengthens the cost support for double - glue paper, but the transmission is general [19]. - Outlook: The tender for double - glue paper has been launched one after another, and paper factories are enthusiastic about raising prices. It is expected to fluctuate strongly following the pulp [21]. 3.11 Logs - View: There is no obvious contradiction in the fundamentals, and the logs maintain low - level fluctuations [23]. - Logic: On the supply side, the shipment from New Zealand will increase in December, and the long - term supply pressure still exists. The purchase intention of traders is suppressed, and the import rhythm depends on the port inventory and international costs. On the demand side, the demand in 2026 is expected to be weak and stable. The inventory will gradually decrease in the short term and increase seasonally in the first quarter of 2026 [23]. - Outlook: The fundamentals of logs have no clear contradiction, the spot price is under pressure, and it will fluctuate at a low level recently [23]. 3.12 Commodity Index - On November 17, 2025: The comprehensive index of CITIC Futures commodities is not provided in detail. The characteristic index shows that the CITIC Futures Commodity 20 Index is 2555.84, a decrease of 0.42%; the industrial product index is 2228.52, an increase of 0.56%. The agricultural product index is 932.55, with a daily decline of 0.56%, a 5 - day decline of 0.34%, a 1 - month increase of 0.61%, and a year - to - date decline of 2.32% [181][182].