20251118申万期货有色金属基差日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may be on the stronger side. The copper concentrate supply remains tight, and smelting profits are on the verge of profit and loss. However, smelting output continues to grow at a high rate. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to lead to a global copper supply - demand gap, providing long - term support for copper prices [2]. - Zinc prices may fluctuate within a range. The zinc concentrate processing fee has declined, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but the smelting output continues to increase. The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious [2]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Copper - Market Situation: Night - session copper prices closed lower. The concentrate supply is tight, and smelting profits are at the break - even point, yet smelting output keeps growing. Grid investment has positive growth, power source investment slows down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production scheduling has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - Outlook: The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a gap, supporting copper prices in the long run. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes in the US dollar, copper smelting output, and downstream demand. The strategy direction is that copper may be on the stronger side [2]. 3.2 Zinc - Market Situation: Night - session zinc prices closed lower. The zinc concentrate processing fee has dropped, and the concentrate supply is temporarily tight, but the smelting output continues to rise. The galvanized sheet inventory is generally high. The cumulative growth rate of infrastructure investment is slowing down, automobile production and sales have positive growth, home appliance production has negative growth, and the real estate market is weak [2]. - Outlook: The overall supply - demand difference of zinc is not obvious, and it may fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in the US dollar, smelting output, and downstream demand [2]. 3.3 Market Data | Variety | Domestic Previous - day Futures Closing Price (Yuan/ton) | Domestic Basis (Yuan/ton) | Previous - day LME 3 - month Futures Closing Price (US dollars/ton) | LME Spot Premium/Discount (US dollars/ton) | LME Inventory (tons) | LME Inventory Daily Change (tons) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | 86,330 | 20 | 10,767 | - 32.62 | 135,725 | - 450 | | Aluminum | 21,585 | - 20 | 2,806 | - 38.42 | 552,375 | - 825 | | Zinc | 22,455 | 25 | 2,990 | 104.97 | 38,975 | 1,175 | | Nickel | 116,650 | - 3,200 | 14,675 | - 203.57 | 252,090 | 120 | | Lead | 17,270 | - 190 | 2,039 | - 16.88 | 222,475 | - 1,500 | | Tin | 290,300 | 2,640 | 36,900 | - 75.00 | 3,065 | 10 | [2]