20251118申万期货品种策略日报-聚烯烃（LL&PP）-20251118

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin futures showed narrow - range consolidation. On the spot market, linear LL prices from Sinopec remained stable, while some prices from PetroChina were raised by 50. For拉丝PP, prices from both Sinopec and PetroChina remained stable. The overall operating rate of the downstream demand side is at a high level, and demand is steadily being released. After a continuous decline earlier, there was a slight rebound last week. Overall, the market is still in a low - level consolidation. Future attention should be paid to the intensity of seasonal demand and changes in the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - LL Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6843, 6902, and 6949 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the price changes were - 10, - 13, and - 7, with price decline rates of - 0.15%, - 0.19%, and - 0.10% respectively. The trading volumes were 206820, 42477, and 227, and the open interests were 542295, 115114, and 2254, with changes in open interests of 1540, 1481, and - 31 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 59, - 47, and 106, compared with previous values of - 62, - 41, and 103 [2]. - PP Futures: The previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6467, 6565, and 6606 respectively. Compared with the prices two days ago, the price changes were - 7, - 10, and - 7, with price decline rates of - 0.11%, - 0.15%, and - 0.11% respectively. The trading volumes were 231256, 35837, and 591, and the open interests were 632878, 157881, and 9134, with changes in open interests of 10826, 3191, and 144 respectively. The spreads between January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 98, - 41, and 139, compared with previous values of - 101, - 38, and 139 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current values of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and mulch film were 2035 yuan/ton, 5845 yuan/ton, 553 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6230 yuan/ton, and 8700 yuan/ton respectively. Compared with the previous values, methanol futures decreased from 2062 yuan/ton, and Shandong propylene increased from 5800 yuan/ton, while other raw materials remained unchanged [2]. - Spot Market (Mid - stream): For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6950 - 7450 yuan/ton, 6800 - 7100 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7400 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges in the East China and South China markets remained the same, while in the North China market, the previous range was 6800 - 7050 and 8100 - 8250. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 6350 - 6550 yuan/ton, 6250 - 6450 yuan/ton, and 6450 - 6550 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges in the East China and North China markets remained the same, and in the South China market, the previous range was 6400 - 6550 [2]. Information and Comment - On Monday (November 17), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for December 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $59.91 per barrel, a decrease of $0.18 or 0.30% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $59.32 - $60.44. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for January 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $64.2 per barrel, a decrease of $0.19 or 0.30% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $63.67 - $64.72 [2].