Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings and Core Views Investment Ratings The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Views - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose. The bond market, stock market, and various commodity markets show different trends and investment opportunities based on their respective fundamentals [6][9][13]. Group 2: Fixed - Income (Treasury Bonds) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed higher across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year主力 contracts rose by 0.33%, 0.09%, 0.05%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 283 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 163.1 billion yuan on that day. From January to October, the national general public budget revenue increased by 0.8% year - on - year [5]. - Outlook: Treasury bond futures are expected to face some pressure, and a cautious approach is recommended [6][7]. Group 3: Equities (Stock Index Futures) - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 index futures主力 contracts fell by 0.89%, 1.12%, 0.50%, and 0.26% respectively [8]. - Outlook: Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak and corporate profit growth is low, the valuation of domestic assets is low, and there is room for repair. The risk of a sharp decline in the stock index is small, and investors can consider going long at an appropriate time [9][10][11]. Group 4: Precious Metals - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the gold主力 contract closed at 929.46, down 2.49%, and the silver主力 contract closed at 11,933, down 3.57%. Japan's Q3 GDP showed a decline, while the EU raised its GDP growth forecast for the eurozone in 2025 [12]. - Outlook: The global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. However, the recent sharp rise in precious metals has led to high prices and increased volatility. It is advisable to wait and see for long - entry opportunities [13][14]. Group 5: Ferrous Metals (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal and Coke, Ferroalloys) Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded slightly. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 2,980 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3,090 - 3,230 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3,270 - 3,290 yuan/ton [15][16]. - Outlook: In the medium term, the price of rebar is likely to remain weak due to the weak demand from the real estate industry and high inventory. The trend of hot - rolled coil is expected to be similar. Technically, there may be a short - term rebound, and investors can consider shorting at high positions during the rebound [16]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rebounded significantly. The spot price of PB powder was 790 yuan/ton, and that of Super Special powder was 680 yuan/ton [18]. - Outlook: The supply - demand pattern of the iron ore market is weak. Technically, the rebound may face resistance. Investors can consider shorting at high positions [18]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly. The supply of coking coal is slightly tight, while the demand for high - priced coking coal has decreased. The fourth - round increase in the spot purchase price of coke has been implemented [20][21]. - Outlook: Technically, coking coal and coke futures may stop falling and rebound. Investors can consider buying on dips [21]. Ferroalloys - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the manganese - silicon主力 contract rose 0.73% to 5,792 yuan/ton, and the silicon - iron主力 contract rose 1.38% to 5,566 yuan/ton. The supply of manganese ore has decreased, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The production of ferroalloys has declined, and the demand is weak [23]. - Outlook: The over - supply situation of ferroalloys has eased. After a decline, investors can consider long - entry opportunities when the spot is in the loss - making range [24]. Group 6: Energy (Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) Crude Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil fluctuated slightly and closed near the 5 - day moving average. The CFTC position report was suspended due to the US government shutdown. The number of US oil and gas rigs increased, and Russia was attacked, which affected the oil market [25]. - Outlook: Although the number of rigs has increased, the growth of US crude oil production is still uncertain. The attack on Russia is positive for oil prices, but there are still concerns about oversupply. It is advisable to wait and see [26][27]. Fuel Oil - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated downward. The expected supply of fuel oil is sufficient, but the sanctions on Russia and the reduction of Sino - US trade frictions have positive effects [28][29][30]. - Outlook: It is advisable to wait and see for the fuel oil主力 contract [31]. Group 7: Chemicals (Polyolefins, Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber, PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle - Chip, Lithium Carbonate) Polyolefins - Market Performance: In the previous trading day, the PP market in Hangzhou showed high - level loosening, and the LLDPE market in Yuyao adjusted. The average downstream industry start - up rate of domestic polypropylene increased slightly, and the demand for some packaging products increased [32]. - Outlook: Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [33]. Synthetic Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber主力 contract fell 0.14%. The price of raw material butadiene rebounded, and the capacity utilization rate of the high - cis butadiene rubber industry increased [34]. - Outlook: The price of synthetic rubber is expected to fluctuate widely with limited downward space. Pay attention to the raw material and supply situation [34]. Natural Rubber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the natural rubber主力 contract rose 0.20%. The supply in domestic and overseas production areas is affected by weather, and the demand from some enterprises has decreased. Thailand's natural rubber exports decreased year - on - year [35]. - Outlook: Investors can pay attention to long - entry opportunities [35]. PVC - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PVC主力 contract fell 0.07%. The supply is still in excess, and the profit of the industrial chain has declined. The social inventory has decreased slightly [36]. - Outlook: Pay attention to the changes in exports and supply reduction after the festival [36]. Urea - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the urea主力 contract rose 0.79%. The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is coming to an end, and the industrial demand is insufficient. The inventory situation is different from the previous week's expectation [37]. - Outlook: The urea market is expected to decline slightly in the next period, but the downward space is limited [37][38]. PX - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PX主力 contract fell 0.76%. The PXN spread is relatively stable, the supply has decreased slightly, and the cost is affected by the oil price [39]. - Outlook: In the short term, PX may fluctuate and adjust, with support at the bottom. Investors can participate in the range, pay attention to the oil price and macro - policies [39]. PTA - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the PTA2601主力 contract fell 0.42%. The supply load has been adjusted, the demand of the polyester industry is relatively stable, and the processing fee has decreased [40][41]. - Outlook: In the short term, PTA may fluctuate. Investors should be cautious, control risks, and pay attention to the oil price [41]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol主力 contract rose 0.36%. The overall start - up load has decreased, the port inventory has increased, and the demand support is limited [42]. - Outlook: In the short term, ethylene glycol may be under pressure. Pay attention to port inventory and supply changes [42]. Short - Fiber - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2602主力 contract fell 0.16%. The supply load is high, the demand has not changed much, and the cost drive has increased [43]. - Outlook: In the short term, short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Investors should control risks and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. Bottle - Chip - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2601主力 contract fell 0.24%. The processing fee has been adjusted, the supply load has decreased, the export growth has slowed down, but it is still at a high level [45]. - Outlook: In the future, bottle - chip is expected to fluctuate with the cost. Investors should control risks [45]. Lithium Carbonate - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the主力 contract rose 9% to 95,200 yuan/ton. The supply is still at a high level, and the demand in the energy storage and power battery sectors has improved, and the inventory has decreased [46]. - Outlook: Pay attention to the sustainability of consumption [46]. Group 8: Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Lead, Tin, Nickel) Copper - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai copper主力 contract closed at 86,320 yuan/ton, down 0.1%. The US government shutdown ended, and China's economic data in October was weak. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the terminal demand is affected by high raw material prices [47][48]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to remain high and fluctuate [48][49]. Aluminum - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai aluminum主力 contract closed at 21,625 yuan/ton, down 0.48%, and the alumina主力 contract closed at 2,790 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The supply of bauxite is stable, the supply of alumina is loose, and the demand is weakening [50]. - Outlook: There may be a phased correction [50][51]. Zinc - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai zinc主力 contract closed at 22,390 yuan/ton, down 0.22%. The supply of zinc concentrate is tight, the production of refined zinc has decreased, and the demand is average [52][53]. - Outlook: Zinc prices are expected to fluctuate within a range [53][54]. Lead - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the Shanghai lead主力 contract closed at 17,275 yuan/ton, down 0.86%. The supply of primary lead is affected by maintenance, the production of recycled lead is growing slowly, and the demand is in the off - season [55]. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to run within a range [55][56]. Tin - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the tin主力 contract fell 1.12% to 290,940 yuan/ton. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand shows some resilience in emerging fields [57]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [57]. Nickel - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the nickel主力 contract fell 0.71% to 116,990 yuan/ton. The price of nickel ore is stable, the production of nickel - iron is affected, and the demand is weak [58][59]. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate [59]. Group 9: Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil and Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal and Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apple, Live Pigs, Eggs, Corn and Starch) Soybean Oil and Meal - Market Performance: On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell 1.23% to 3,043 yuan/ton, and the soybean oil main contract fell 0.14% to 8,282 yuan/ton. The Brazilian soybean planting progress is slower, and the US soybean production is slightly adjusted. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the inventory of soybean oil and meal has different trends [60]. - Outlook: For soybean meal, investors can consider exiting long positions when it continues to rise. For soybean oil, pay attention to long - entry opportunities at the low - cost support level [61]. Palm Oil - Market Performance: The Malaysian palm oil market is affected by the exchange rate and export data. The domestic palm oil imports have decreased, and the inventory is at a medium level. The catering industry shows growth [62]. - Outlook: Consider buying on dips [63]. Rapeseed Meal and Oil - Market Performance: The Canadian rapeseed market is affected by the US soybean market. The import of Canadian rapeseed has not restarted, and the inventory of rapeseed, meal, and oil in China has different trends [64]. - Outlook: For rapeseed oil, consider a long - biased strategy [65]. Cotton - Market Performance: The US Department of Agriculture raised the global and US cotton production and inventory forecasts. The domestic cotton production is expected to be high, and the demand is weak after the peak season [65][66]. - Outlook: Cotton prices are expected to run weakly [66][67]. Sugar - Market Performance: The Brazilian sugar production is in the seasonal decline period, while India has a strong production increase expectation. The domestic sugar production in the north has started, and the import volume is expected to be high in the fourth quarter [68][69][70][71]. - Outlook: Sugar prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [72]. Apple - Market Performance: The domestic apple futures are oscillating at a high level. The inventory is lower than last year, and the quality of this year's apples is poor [73]. - Outlook: Apple prices are expected to run strongly [74]. Live Pigs - Market Performance: The national average price of live pigs has decreased. The supply may increase in the second half of the month, and the demand is expected to be weak in the short term [75][77]. - Outlook: Consider shorting on rebounds and pay attention to changes in consumption [77]. Eggs - Market Performance: The price of eggs has decreased slightly. The egg - laying hen inventory is at a high level but may decline slightly in November. The consumption may be supported after the temperature drops [78]. - Outlook: Consider gradually closing short positions [79]. Corn and Starch - Market Performance: The corn主力 contract was flat, and the corn starch主力 contract fell 0.60%. The US corn production was adjusted downward, and the demand for corn shows a slight increase. The inventory of corn and starch has different trends [80][81]. - Outlook: It is advisable to wait and see for corn, and corn starch is expected to follow the corn market [82].
西南期货早间评论-20251118
Xi Nan Qi Huo·2025-11-18 02:47