光大期货能化商品日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Crude oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate due to weak supply and demand and the impact of sanctions on Russian oil companies [1]. - Fuel oil prices are likely to oscillate. The spread between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain at a relatively high level, and attention should be paid to the impact of attacks on Russian oil terminals [1]. - Asphalt prices are viewed with a bearish bias in the short - term as supply and demand both decline, with the supply decline being smaller than the demand decline [3]. - Polyester prices are expected to be volatile. PTA prices may show strong fluctuations, while ethylene glycol prices will likely have a wide - range adjustment [3][5]. - Rubber prices are expected to fluctuate as supply pressure increases and downstream demand is weak, but winter storage demand provides some support [5]. - Methanol prices are expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation. Iranian supply may decline, and port inventories are likely to start decreasing from mid - December to early January [5][7]. - Polyolefin prices are expected to approach a bottom - level oscillation. Supply will remain high, and demand will weaken, but low valuations may prompt downstream buying [7]. - PVC prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom. Although the fundamentals are bearish, the narrowing of the hedging space due to the repair of the basis may limit further price drops [7][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Crude Oil: On Monday, WTI December contract closed down $0.18 to $59.91 per barrel (down 0.3%), Brent January contract closed down $0.19 to $64.2 per barrel (down 0.3%), and SC2512 closed up 1.3 yuan to 460 yuan per barrel (up 0.28%). US sanctions on Russian oil companies are taking effect, and the price of Russia's flagship Urals crude has dropped to a three - year low. Current oil prices lack a clear driver under the weak supply - demand situation [1]. - Fuel Oil: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the SHFE closed down 0.92% at 2,593 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2601 closed up 0.43% at 3,236 yuan per ton. Singapore is expected to receive 2.9 - 3 million tons of low - sulfur fuel oil from the West in November. Adequate supply is offset by relatively healthy downstream demand [1]. - Asphalt: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 on the SHFE closed up 0.13% at 3,032 yuan per ton. Refineries are releasing a large number of low - price forward contracts, putting pressure on spot prices. Supply may decline slightly due to falling profits, and downstream demand is limited due to weather conditions [3]. - Polyester: TA601 closed down 0.17% at 4,692 yuan per ton, EG2601 closed up 0.41% at 3,938 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 601 closed down 0.15% at 6,796 yuan per ton. Some polyester and ethylene glycol plants have changes in their operating schedules. Indian cancellation of BIS certification is beneficial for PTA and its downstream exports [3][5]. - Rubber: On Monday, the main natural rubber contract RU2601 closed up 100 yuan to 15,315 yuan per ton, NR main contract closed up 90 yuan to 12,355 yuan per ton, and BR main contract closed up 10 yuan to 10,455 yuan per ton. Rubber supply is increasing seasonally, and downstream demand is weak, but winter storage demand supports prices [5]. - Methanol: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,012 yuan per ton. Domestic supply has recovered to a high level, but Iranian supply may decline in late November to December. Port inventories are expected to start decreasing from mid - December to early January [5][7]. - Polyolefins: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,380 - 6,580 yuan per ton. Production profits are negative across different production methods. Supply will remain high, and demand will weaken after the e - commerce activities [7]. - PVC: On Monday, the PVC market prices in East, North, and South China showed different trends. Supply remains high, domestic demand is slowing, and exports are cautiously optimistic. The price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [7][8]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data for various energy and chemical products on November 18, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [9]. 3.3 Market News - A preliminary survey shows that US crude and distillate inventories are expected to decrease last week, while gasoline inventories are expected to increase. As of the week ending November 14, US crude inventories are estimated to have decreased by about 2 million barrels [13]. - The price of Russia's flagship Urals crude in the Black Sea has dropped to $36.61 per barrel, a three - year low, due to upcoming US sanctions on Russian oil companies [13]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - 4.1 Main Contract Prices: The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for multiple energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [15][16][17] - 4.2 Main Contract Basis: There are charts showing the basis of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc., over different time periods [32][34][37] - 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report includes charts of spreads between different contracts for fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [44][46][50] - 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads: Charts display spreads between different varieties, such as crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spread, etc. [62][64][66] - 4.5 Production Profits: There are charts showing the production profits of LLDPE, PP, etc. [71]