如何理解10月经济数据的下滑：周度经济观察-20251118

Economic Data Overview - October economic data shows a comprehensive slowdown, with industrial added value year-on-year at 4.9%, down 1.6 percentage points from September[4] - Fixed asset investment in October decreased by 12.2% year-on-year, marking a significant drop of 5.1 percentage points, the lowest in nearly five years[7] - Real estate investment in October fell by 23% year-on-year, a decline of 1.7 percentage points from September, with new construction area down 29.5%[10] Demand and Consumption Trends - Social retail sales in October grew by only 2.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points, reaching a new low for the year[12] - Private investment saw a year-on-year decline of 16.8%, down 7.9 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a widening gap between private and manufacturing investments[8] Market and Policy Implications - The current economic slowdown is attributed to insufficient total demand, with a reliance on policy interventions for recovery[14] - The end of the U.S. government shutdown has not alleviated concerns, as October CPI and employment data face permanent loss risks, impacting market expectations for a December rate cut[21] - Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve have dropped to 44.4%, below 50%, following a shift towards a more hawkish stance among Fed officials[22]