黑色商品日报-20251118

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report provides daily analysis and forecasts for various black commodities, including steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, suggesting that most of these commodities will show a narrow - range consolidation or oscillatory trend in the short term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Steel: The rebar market showed obvious gains. The spot price rose, and the inventory decreased. The market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the cost has strong support for the low - valued rebar price. It is expected to continue narrow - range consolidation [1] - Iron Ore: The futures price increased. The supply from Australia and Brazil rebounded, and the demand and inventory both increased. In the short term, the price will oscillate [1] - Coking Coal: The futures price went up. The supply side has tight inventory in some areas, and the demand side has a certain replenishment demand. It is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [1] - Coke: The futures price rose. After the fourth price increase, the profit of coke enterprises recovered, and the demand from steel mills increased. However, the terminal finished product market is weak, so it is expected to oscillate widely [1] - Manganese Silicon: The futures price oscillated strongly. The cost support is strong, and the supply is decreasing while the demand is weak. It will maintain an oscillatory pattern [1] - Ferrosilicon: The futures price oscillated strongly. The production decreased, the cost is relatively firm, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be supported and oscillate, and attention should be paid to the production changes in the main production areas [1] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads and Basis: Data on contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months) and basis for various commodities (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, etc.) are provided, along with their latest values and环比 changes [4] - Profit and Spread: Information on profits (such as rebar disk profit, long - process profit) and spreads (such as coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio) is presented, including their latest values and环比 changes [4] 3.3 Chart Analysis - 3.3.1 Main Contract Prices: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][14] - 3.3.2 Main Contract Basis: Charts display the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [16][17][18][20][21][23] - 3.3.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads: Charts show the inter - period contract spreads (such as 01 - 05, 05 - 10) for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon [25][27][32][33][34][37][38] - 3.3.4 Inter - variety Contract Spreads: Charts present the inter - variety contract spreads (such as main contract coil - rebar spread, main contract rebar - iron ore ratio) for different commodities [42][43][44][45] - 3.3.5 Rebar Profit: Charts show the rebar main contract disk profit, long - process calculation profit, and short - process calculation profit from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][50][51] 3.4 Black Research Team Members Introduction - The team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional backgrounds and qualifications in the black commodity research field [53][54]